Saturday 28 October 2023

The war in Gaza could last for months

So mighty are the challenges facing the Israeli Defence Forces in defeating and eliminating Hamas in Gaza, the war is likely to last for months or longer. It also means that Israeli troops will have to occupy Gaza, even if they manage to destroy the whole Hamas network, because the Strip cannot be left ungoverned and ungovernable. A replacement administration will have to be found and who will want to take over a destroyed country and an angry population? Destroying all the hundreds if not thousands of tunnels will take for ever. So this is a longlasting war, and the longer it goes on the more difficult it will be for Israel to extract itself from Gaza. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu knows this which is why it has begun the retaliatory fightback with such hesitation. Not from the air because there have been non-stop bombing raids, but on the ground. No war can be won from the air, so if Hamas is going to be defeated and destroyed as an organisation, Israeli troops are going to have to take on the job which means there will be multiple casualties. It's going to be a huge tragedy with massively dangerous and unpredictable consequences for the region and for the world.

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