Friday 1 September 2023

Putin and Erdogan to meet. Is that good news or just politics?

President Putin and President Erdogan of Turkey sit in separate camps but I am pretty sure they like or at least respect each other. So the announcement that the two leaders are to meet in the Black Sea resort of Sochi next week is either a good development or is just plain old-fashioned playing to the gallery. The fact that Erdogan, a wily leader if ever there was one, is going to Russia to meet Putin is not that extraordinary because if they met in, say, Istanbul or Geneva, some law enforcement agency might interrupt the meeting and arrest the Russian president who faces an international warrant for war crimes in Ukraine. So they will talk about the abandoned grain deal under which Putin had allowed tankers filled with grain to leave Ukraine for trips through the Black Sea to reach Africa and elsewhere. I can't see Erdogan succeeding in getting Putin to give up on his war in Ukraine but he just might persuade him to revive the grain deal. It would be sensible politics for Putin although there is unlikely to be any quid pro quo for him, like a semi-lifting of sanctions against Russia. In my view it is better to talk to Putin than shout at him. He's a hardened ex-FSB (KGB) leader, so he will only do a deal if he thinks it's in his interest. But charming Erdogan might give him a sort of friend in the enemy camp - Nato. So I see a deal coming up but no end to the war. **Order my new spy thriller, Shadow Lives, which has a strong Russian theme (Amazon and Waterstones).

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