Has the threat of Putin resorting to nukes receded?

As the war in Ukraine approaches its second winter, the Ukrainian military have recovered about 50 per cent of the territory seized by the Russian invasion forces and have extended their counteroffensive by persistently hitting targets in occupied Crimea and in Russia itself. From a Moscow point of view, the Russian military setbacks may have caused President Putin to think seriously about resorting to tactical nuclear weapons as a way of driving forward what North Korean leader Kim Jong-un predicted would be a “victory” for Russia in Ukraine. Since the invasion on February 24, 2021, Putin and, even more frequently Dimitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, have warned of Russia’s right to use nuclear weapons. Has the Russian threat to turn to tactical nuclear weapons grown or receded? Nato has repeatedly said there are no signs that Russia is preparing to unleash its nuclear arsenal. Indeed, it could be argued that the threat, seen as credible by President Biden only a few months ago, has receded. Putin seems to be placing his hopes on the US-led coalition tiring of supporting Ukraine “for as long it takes”, or perhaps anticipating a new American president next year who would be more willing to push for a deal which he could then claim as a victory. Resorting to nuclear weapons would end any prospect of a settlement acceptable to Moscow. So belligerent nuclear-war warnings, particularly by Medvedev whose current job is deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, are generally viewed in the West as just alarmist propaganda. However, the most difficult question for western governments is trying to guess or second-guess what is in Putin’s mind. Rhetoric around nuclear weapons has become so routine in Russia in recent years, it could potentially lower the psychological threshold for their use. But for Putin, the launching of tactical nuclear weapons would be the final acknowledgment by the Kremlin that the war to take control of Ukraine has irrevocably failed? Why would Putin ever consider resorting to nuclear weapons? With the prospect of a never-ending conflict, Putin who has sole command of Russia’s giant stockpile of tactical nuclear bombs and missiles, could come to the conclusion that only a mighty blow, using the most deadly weapon at his disposal, would save his nation — and his regime — from humiliation and ignominy. Putin and Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, have stated that Moscow would have the right to turn to nuclear weapons if the Russian motherland faced an “existential” threat. The definition of existential threat might have changed in Putin’s mind as a result of the growing number of Ukrainian armed drone and sabotage attacks on Russian airbases and cities inside Russia and on military targets in Crimea, annexed and occupied since 2014. Looking at the nuclear issue from a western standpoint, the answer seems clear. Strategically and tactically, it would make little sense. Tactical nuclear weapons, with their more limited range and potency, would be devastating but would not guarantee an end to the war or an instant victory for Putin. However, in Putin’s mind, using nuclear weapons could be his way of throwing down the gauntlet to the West, his message being: “With you continuing to arm Kyiv with increasingly advanced weaponry to hurt Russian forces, I had no other choice.” What is stopping Putin from using tactical nuclear weapons? There are two principal reasons. The first is China. President Xi has publicly stated and, no doubt privately warned Putin in person, that nuclear weapons should never be used. China is Russia’s strategic partner. The alliance between the two nations has grown exponentially since the war in Ukraine began. The Chinese leader has never condemned his Russian friend for invading Ukraine but, so far, he has not offered military help. Furthermore, he is trying to position himself as a peacemaker, attempting to forge a settlement that would bring a diplomatic end to the war and boost his own reputation and power on the global stage. Putin will know that if he orders a nuclear strike, however limited, his partnership with China would be put at grave risk, if not destroyed. The second reason is the likely response from the United States and Nato. Putin may argue the case in his mind that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would not lead to a nuclear or conventional counterstrike by the West because Kyiv is not yet a member of the western alliance and is therefore not covered by Article 5 of the organisation’s founding treaty. This guarantees that an attack on an individual member of the alliance is equivalent to an attack on Nato as a whole. However, the US has made it clear that the use of nuclear weapons by Putin in Ukraine would have “catastrophic consequences” for Russia. What these consequences would be have not been spelt out. But could it lead to a direct confrontation between Nato and Russia? Putin has to take this possible scenario into account before gambling on his nuclear options. Has anything changed that makes it more or less likely Putin will use nuclear weapons? What has changed is the scale and quality of the weaponry provided by the US-led coalition of 50 countries. Now that the US has agreed to American-built F-16 fighter jets being supplied to Ukraine, the battle for air superiority will pose a new and potentially crucial phase in the war. Alexander Grushko, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, warned of “enormous risks” if the West went ahead with sending these fighter aircraft to Ukraine. Was he hinting that the arrival of F-16s could lead to a nuclear response? F-16s won’t be operational in Ukraine for several more months. The first ten of 31 US Abrams tanks are also expected to be delivered soon to Ukraine, ratcheting up the threat posed to Russian defences in the south and east; and if Biden decides to supply Kyiv with longer-range weapons, as President Zelensky has been urging for a long time, such a move could be viewed by Putin as a serious and unacceptable escalation, posing an even greater threat to Russian bases and cities. As if in preparation for a possible nuclear attack, Putin has sent the first batch of tactical systems to Belarus, his friendly neighbour. It’s the first time Moscow has deployed nuclear missiles outside Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It’s also the most pronounced nuclear signal to the West since Russian troops invaded Ukraine last year. The short-range nuclear missiles have been housed in a new storage facility.Tactical nuclear bombs being moved to Belarus, which shares borders with three Nato countries, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, could force a reassessment in the West of Putin’s likely options if the war in Ukraine fails to give him the strategic trophies he thought would fall into his hands months ago.