Friday 22 September 2023

Poland's weapons ban to Ukraine is slippery slope

Poland has been one of the most generous Nato members helping Ukraine with weapons and military aid since the Russian invasion in February last year. But now for all kinds of reasons, most of them political, the Polish prime minister has announced that the weapons flow to Kyiv will stop and that Warsaw's focus will be on buying advanced weapons for its own military. This is a reasoning which many other former Soviet bloc nations might come up with over the next few months. All of them had huge storages of old Soviet-era tanks, armoured vehicles and fighter aircraft which they were happy to offload to Ukraine. But Poland now has little left in the cupboard and wants to replace the old stuff with spanking new weapons and aircraft to defend their country and to fulfil their obligation to be a modernised member of the Nato alliance. Poland is still happy for the rest of the alliance to ferry their weapons to Ukraine through Polish territory and of course the country is host to millions of Ukrainian refugees. But the decision announced by the Polish leader is potentially damaging to the whole Ukrainian cause. Support for Ukraine among the Polish people remains high, according to polls, but the timing of the decision is not just about stores running out of old Soviet armour, it's also about politics and upcoming elections. The ruling Law and Justice Party is fighting for reelection next month. So, talking about a strong Polish military in the face of Moscow's aggression will no doubt meet with approval from voters. But the Polish announcement could still be a slippery slope for the coalition against Russia and Putin will be rubbing his hands with glee.

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