Friday, 3 March 2023

The ten-minute chat between Blinken and Lavrov is better than nothing

Face-to-face diplomacy is always better than long-distance phone calls where facial expressions can't be seen and studied. So the ten-minute chat between Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, and Sergey Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, on Thursday at the G20 summit in Delhi was at least a reasonably good sign that the top diplomats from each country can hold a conversation, albeit briefly. No one imagines that anything truly positive occurred. They have not been mates at the best of times. But in the diplomatic game, being in the same room and getting your views across can only be helpful. Lavrov is a pretty cold fish and has been a loyal supporter of Vladimir Putin and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But he has been around long enough to know that at some stage there will have to be a bit of wriggle room to at least begin a discussion about ending the war. Unfortunately that's still a long way off and even when discussions do begin, it's difficult to see how it can all be satisfactorily sorted out without one side or the other or both being humiliated. Nevertheless, the Blinken/Lavrov chat is the first positive sign since the invasion of Ukraine that all is not lost. Blinken appealed to Lavrov to hang on to the New Start nuclear treaty after Putin's announcement that Russia was suspending participation in the nuclear weapons reduction deal. But actually Putin didn't say he was scrapping Russia's paticipation in the treaty, nor did he say he intended to boost missile numbers to breach the limits agreed in New Start. So while Putin's declaration caused headlines around the world about a new nuclear arms race which probably pleased the Russian leader, they were not justified. It's as much in Russia's interest to have limits on nuclear weapons as it is for the US. Russia can't afford a nuclear arms race, so Putin's suspension was just that. Suspension. Lavrov probably said as much to Blinken. The two men should talk more often.

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