The danger of war in the skies over the Black Sea

The risk of a clash between Russian and Nato forces has been ever-present from the moment President Putin sent his invasion force over the border into Ukraine nearly 13 months ago. The collision between the US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drone and a Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter jet over the Black Sea was the latest and most dramatic example of how miscalculation or deliberate provocation could lead to a wider and more dangerous military confrontation. The Black Sea which has been one of the key strategic launch points for cruise missile attacks against Ukraine is also a crucial region for US-led Nato surveillance operations, monitoring the location and movements of Russian warships and troop positions in southern Ukraine. President Biden said that American troops would not be deployed to Ukraine to help the Kyiv forces defend against the Russians. But the Black Sea is open house for the western alliance and every type of surveillance and intelligence-gathering aircraft, manned and unmanned, is operating in the skies. The potential for mid-air conflict was never far away. US defence officials said that if the Russian fighter jet had hit the drone full-on it would have been seriously damaged, and possibly destroyed. The nightmare scenario for the US and allies operating over the Black Sea is the prospect of a clash in anger with the Russian air force that could lead to an escalation of unpredictable consequences. The Black Sea borders both Russia and Ukraine but also Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, all members of Nato. This has given the alliance a valuable and justifiable reason for launching surveillance operations over the Black Sea. The Pentagon calls these missions routine, playing a role in protecting the eastern flank of the alliance against the possibility of Russian aggression. As part of these routine patrols, the Reaper has been a key asset, capable of sustaining long-endurance missions and with its wide-range sensors has been sending back intelligence of Russian naval activities. This eye-in-the-sky intelligence has been shared with Kyiv. Reapers are based in Poland, Romania, Greece and Estonia. They have been active on a daily basis. But there are other manned aircraft which also have crucial intelligence-gathering roles. They include the RC-135W Rivet Joint electronic surveillance aircraft and the P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. It was a Poseidon, again on a routine patrol, which helped confirm for the Ukrainians the location of the Russian Black Sea flagship cruiser, the Moskva, which was fatally struck by two Neptune anti-ship missiles on April 13 last year. Potentially risky interactions between Russian and Nato aircraft over the Black Sea have been fairly frequent since the war in Ukraine began. But the Reaper incident was the first physical clash between the US and Russian air forces. The defence ministry in Moscow denied there had been a collision but there was evidence that a Russian Su-27, one of two aircraft that harassed the Reaper drone had been damaged and was forced to land in an emergency at a base in Crimea.