Wednesday 21 September 2022

Putin now consumed by paranoia which is highly dangerous

Vladimir Putin and his closest cohorts firmly believe, or at least they say they firmly believe, that it was actually the West which started the war in Ukraine and that as a result the very existence of motherland Russia is now at stake. Putin, like his predecessors, with the exception of Gorbachov and Yeltsin, is suffering from a huge dose of paranoia. He believes everyone in the West is plotting to destroy his beloved country. If only he knew the truth and accepted it. He ordered his troops across the border into Ukraine and they are doing very badly. OK it's largely thanks to all the heavy weapons provided by the West, but Nato, Mr Putin, is not plotting to conquer Russia - you can keep Russia - but to defend a sovereign country from Russian occupation. But Putin's closest aides seem to think Ukraine is full of Nato troops fighting alongside the Ukrainians. This is all geting highly dangerous. Now Putin has ordered a partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists, all of whom at some point will have received military training. They will be the latest cannon fodder for the Kremlin's disastrous war strategy. As for threatening to use nuclear weapons and his steely statement that he is not bluffing are obviously intended to frighten the West. But western support for Ukraine appears to be rock solid. The general view of Nato governmens and military is that everything Putin is now doing is further evidence that he has failed in Ukraine. He is reacting like a bully who knows he cannot win. The trouble with this assessment is that we are dealing here with a leader who thinks the world is against him and he wants to strike back with everything he has got in his weapons cupboard. As every day goes by and as the latest setback in Ukraine unfolds the more likely it is that Putin will do something catastrophically bad. Firing off tactical nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out, not with a man like Putin with his fnger on the button.

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