Sunday 25 September 2022

Could it be that the Putin era is coming to an end?

Russia is a vast country and when newspapers report of mass protests against Putin's call-up of 300,000 reservists for the war in Ukraine, that doesn't mean the whole nation is in uproar. But the very existence of protests at all when criticism of the war in Ukraine is banned by law does demonstrate that Putin is rapidly losing his popularity. At some time, if there are more and more arrests of men who refuse to fight in Ukraine or of protestors who demonstrate in the streets, there could be a tipping point when Putin's continuing role as president might come under scrutiny. If he fails to get the 300,000 reservists he is after, will this be another ingredient in his downfall or will he just blame the military and sack a few more senior officers? I think there is little doubt that Putin will fight his corner to the end. He is not going to give up, either the war or his presidency, because of failings by the military in Ukraine or protests in the streets. However, the other powerful elite components of the regime that props him up might begin to wonder if he is still the right man to be the boss in the Kremlin. If that were to happen, then there could be bloody reprisals. To survive, Putin needs a victory in Ukraine to prove that his strategy is working, but the chances of that happening are getting less and less likely. As I wrote before, the 300,000 additional troops will just be cannon fodder for the Ukrainian artillery and advancing combat units. The next few weeks will be decisive. And dangerous.

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