Wednesday 27 July 2022

Putin's "instant" war is now five months old

I doubt Vladimir Putin ever thought that his "special military operation" in Ukraine would still be raging five months after it was launched. But the truth is Putin has so many military and geopolitical cards to play that the unexpected and unplanned-for extended conflict has still not knocked him off his perch. He is going to carry on regardless knowing that he has far more options available to him than does his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. He also knows that he has time on his side. The longer the war goes on, the greater the chance, in his view, will be the scenario in which members of the now-tight Nato alliance begin to fumble and faint under the weight of an explosive cost of living rise and power-supply restraints. Despite his failure to grab Kyiv in six days under his Big Plan, Putin is succeeding in milking the damage his Russian trops have caused by spreading the misery as far as he can, across Europe and elsewhere. Countries such as Moldova and Latvia are worried Putin has some grand invasion plan against them too and that suits the Russian leader very well. He wants everyone to be scared of him or at least worried about what he might do next. It really is time for something to go very very badly wrong for Putin and his schemes. Something to make him think twice about pursuing whatever dreams he has. Something that will bring this wretched war to an abrupt end. This "something" may come from the Kyiv government but if it doesn't it's going to have come from Nato. Some bold move to put Putin in his place without causing World War Three.

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