Monday 4 July 2022

All the talk is about the cost of reconstruction in Ukraine but shouldn't Putin pay?

The war in Ukraine is still a long way off from ending and Russian destruction of property and critical infrastructure continues apace. But political leaders and international organisations are meeting in Switzerland to discuss how to rebuild Ukraine and at what cost. It seems almost bizarre that experts are already putting a figure on the likely cost of such a massive programme - $750 billion. Presumably no reconstruction work will begin until the war has stopped but even then, will Putin be happy to see western money pouring in to rebuild what his troops have destroyed? It is estimated that Russian forces and missiles have so far caused about $100 billion of damage to infrastructure. Well, I doubt Putin will mind other people paying to clear up the mess he has created but if, as seems likely, Russia will be in control of the wole Donbas region, Putin will be able to dictate what he sees as appropriate financial help from outsiders and might ban it all together. He doesn't want Ukraine to be a thriving country, living the dream as a member of the European Union. He wants it to be subservient and Moscow-obedient. So I'm not sure those people meeting in Switzerland have necessarily thought through the politics of what are obviously good intentions to help Ukraine come out of the ashes created by the Russian invasion. First, surely, Putin has to pay dearly for trying to destroy Ukraine but if, as I wrote yesterday, Russia continues to have a winning hand in the war, reconstruction and reparation are not going to happen, not in the neat sort of way being discussed in Switzerland.

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