The battle for Kherson in full swing

The battle for Kherson, the southern Ukrainian city occupied by Russian troops, will be the defining moment in the war now entering its six month. Kherson, a crucial port on the Black Sea, represents strategic significance for both sides. Key to Ukraine’s success will be its ability to continue targeting Russian arms stores and logistics around the city but without destroying the very bridges the Ukrainian military will need to rely on as their advance pushes ahead. For President Putin, the city was the first to fall to Russian forces after the invasion on February 24 and remains key to his ambitions to control southern Ukraine, particularly the ports along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov linking up with Crimea, annexed and occupied since 2014. For President Zelensky, failure to stop Putin’s army in its tracks as it tries to implement the Russian leader’s orders in the south, could spell disaster for Ukraine’s future economic independence. Recapturing Kherson has become an urgent priority for the Kyiv government. Not only would it be a blow for Putin if the Russian troops are driven out of the city but it could force him, not for the first time, to recalculate his strategic objectives. Zelensky has said he wants to retake Kherson by September. But it’s a challenge that may be beyond the Ukrainian military, even armed as they are with the US Himars multiple-launch rocket system which has given them the ideal weapon to target Russian supply depots. Cutting off the Russian logistic lines to Kherson could change the balance of power in the battle for the city. However, retaking a city requires more than a long-range artillery system. The role of infantry will be crucial, too, and after suffering multiple casualties over the last five months, a full-scale offensive against Russian positions in the city would seem unlikely. Yet progress has been made. Local reports indicate Ukrainian troops have already liberated more than 40 towns and villages approaching Kherson, providing closer firing positions for the Himars and other artillery systems. There is another aspect in Ukraine’s favour. While the Russians remain in control of Kherson, Putin’s army is spread thinly, with the bulk of the forces still engaged in the Donbas region in the east. If the Russians are vulnerable to a Ukrainian counter-attack in the south it is probably now which is why Zelensky has seized his moment, acting before Moscow has the chance substantially to reinforce the Kherson region. The number of Russian troops on the Kherson side of the River Dnipro is estimated to be only in the low thousands and if their logistics chains are persistently targeted, their ability to defend against attacks could weaken. There are two tactical challenges facing Ukraine: *The Himars system has undoubtedly been a battle-transforming weapon but the Ukrainian gunners are firing so many of the rockets each day that supplies could run out. The US is known to be struggling to keep the production lines running fast enough back home to provide the quantity of munitions the Kyiv government is demanding. *To undermine logistic supplies for the Russian occupying forces in the Kherson region, the Ukrainian military needs to target the key bridges in the area. The key Antonivsky bridge in Kherson has already been hit many times by Himars rockets and damaged. However, Ukraine cannot afford to destroy the bridge, even if that were possible because if the counter-offensive against the Russian troops in Kherson succeeds, they will need to operate the bridge for themselves.