Saturday 2 April 2022

Will the war in Ukraine turn American war planning for the future upside down?

In recent years war planning for the future - with China in mind - has all been about long-range precision weapons, flexible and adaptable and smaller forces, esecially Marines, who can deploy in tight units around the Indo-Pacific armed with anti-ship missiles, hypersonic weapons, armed drones and cyber systems. Now after coming up to six weeks of a very conventional-type land war in Ukraine, a lot of US retired generals are getting worried about the China focus. What about Russia? What about a future land war in Europe? And above all, what about all those tanks that are currently being mothballed or switched from the Marine Corps to the Army? The greatest focus of concern is the future of the US Marine Corps. Pretty well every retired Marine Corps commandant is rebelling against the strategy of General David Berger, the present Commandant of the Marine Corps who is implementing vast changes to the famous fighting force. Tanks are going and in their place are coming long-range artillery, fancy precision weapons and far less focus on the sheer combat fighting power of the legendary corps. Even Jim Mattis, former Marine Corps commander who became Donald Trump's first defence secretary, is against the Berger Doctrine. They all want the Marine Corps to stay as it is, with tanks galore, heavy armoured vehicles and massive bruce-force fighting power. They point to Russia and its invasion of Ukraine. What if Putin tries to go further? There could well be an all-arms war in Europe ahead. Berger in their view is immasculating the Marine Corps. Berger has won over Congress with his strategy, or at least he had before Russia invaded Ukraine, so the retired generals are probably fighting a lost cause. But the Russian aggression has set the cat among the pigeons. If the US military becomes too obsessed with China and a future war in Indo-China, America, and particularly the Marine Corps, is going to be unprepared for the hard grind of a land war in Europe. Berger is going to have an increasingly hard time convincing his fellow retired Marine commandants that he has got his strategy right.

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