Don't forget Kim Jong-un and his nukes!

The 13th missile test carried out by North Korea so far this year demonstrates, if nothing else, that President Biden’s attempts to prioritise a diplomatic approach towards Pyongyang have yet to achieve any results. Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has pursued an aggressive missile-testing programme, claiming to have launched new systems posing a direct threat both to the region and to the United States itself. The latest test-firing of what appears to be a nuclear-capable tactical ballistic missile would add an extra capability to the multiple artillery systems that line the border with South Korea and threaten Seoul. Washington has condemned all previous missile tests and sanctions have been tightened both in response to the launches and for North Korea’s human rights violations. However, they seem to have had little effect on Kim Jong-un’s determination to show Washington that despite facing dire economic challenges, he is still able to finance a comprehensive missile programme. No US administrations have managed to find the right formula to pressurise the North Korean regime into adopting a more conciliatory policy towards the West, let alone agree to denuclearise. President Obama tried what was called strategic patience, a relatively low key approach to try and soothe Pyongyang to think positively about ending its nuclear programme. President Trump took a much more dramatic line, warning North Korea of annihilation if it dared to threaten the US, and then launching a charm offensive with Kim, leading to two face-to-face but ultimately doomed summit meetings. Under Biden’s administration so far there have been public and private diplomatic approaches but without there being any hint of a breakthrough. The successive missile tests in less than four months and the fear in Washington that North Korea might carry out another nuclear test, the first since September 3, 2017, may well force Biden to consider a tougher sanctions policy or even a more dramatic attempt, Trump-style, to encourage Kim towards a less hostile stance. A meeting between Biden and Kim, however, would seem unlikely. In the meantime, US intelligence agencies have to assess the satellite images of the latest missile test to see what, if any, new threat it might bring to the Korean peninsula. Pyongyang has previously claimed successful tests of other new missile systems which US agencies have subsequently downplayed. However, any battlefield weapon that is nuclear-capable will be seen as a dangerous component of an already huge armoury of weapons facing South Korea.