Monday 11 April 2022

Putin took six weeks to learn how to fight a war

We're nearly seven weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine and only now has Vladimir Putin, commander-in-chief of what was thought to be a premier class army, learned some of the basic facts about waging a war which, to Nato, is second nature. He has at last appointed a supreme commander to run what he calls a special operation, and has reduced his objectives to dividing Ukraine in half. His troops have totally destroyed Mariupol and if they manage, under the new commander, to seize control of the Donbas region in the east, Putin will have a territorial corridor all the way to annexed Crimea. If he succeeds, then he probably won't even bother to rebuild Mariupol but will just demolish what is still standing and build a road through the remains of what used to be a fine city. Having learned lessons the hard way - losing thousands of troops and a mass of armour - everything will now be concentrated on seizing Donbas. This time it's going to be far more difficult for the courageous Ukrainian forces to resist the Russians because it's all open ground, making it easier to manouevre rapidly, and the Ukrainians with their anti-tank weapons won't have so many places to hide. I fear it is going to be a bloody confrontation with a military commander in charge who already has a reputation for brutality. The big question now is: will Nato take a much more interventionist role? Not so interventionist to risk a third world war but considerably bolder and more courageous in backing President Zelensky to try and defeat Putin. After Boris Johnson's visit to Kyiv, I suspect he will be on the phone to Joe Biden to push for a more aggressive stance by the alliance.

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