Friday 24 September 2021

Macron should calm down

By all accounts Emmanuel Macron is still in a dark rage over the aborted diesel-electric submarine deal with Australia he thought was all wrapped and ongoing until Joe Biden and Boris Johnson and their new security friend Scott Morrison stepped in and smashed it all down with the superior nuclear-powered boat deal. Macron in a dark rage is not good for France nor for US-French relations, nor for the Nato alliance, nor for Anglo-French chumminess, nor for the French president's own piece of mind and personal ambitions. I don't know whether Boris's apparent comment, "Donnez moi un break" was actually said but Macron needs to calm down or he is going to bust something. As I have written already, in the defence procurement business, especially in huge contracts involving things like submarines, the big boys generally win and allies can go to hell. I guess what could have happened is that Morrison, a hard man it seems, could have turned to France and asked them to build nuclear-powered submarines and scrap the diesel-electric ones. But he didn't. He decided to ask the US and UK behind the French backs. Macron is so angry at the impertinence of the "Fella Down Under" that he is now asking Australia to cough up $45 billion in compensation for the loss of the conventionaly-powered submarine programme. Lawyers are going to have a field day. Meanwhile Macron has agreed to talk to Biden on the phone but I can't see it ending happily. At some point Macron is going to get so steamed up he might call the US president by a name that everyone knows is a real insult in the French language. "Cochon." It will be very tempting for Macron. But, as I say, he should calm down. Perhaps his wife will manage to persuade him to think big picture. Always a wise move.

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