Biden's challenge by Iran

The biggest question in the longrunning confrontation between Iran and the West over Tehran's suspected clandestine nuclear weapons programme has always been: how long would it take for the Iranians to build a bomb if the regime decided to go all the way as fast as possible. Over the years the US and Israel have come up with different estimates, with Tel Aviv offering a more alarmist prediction than Washington. A long way back Israel's Mossad believed Iran could have the bomb by mid-2013. Eight years on and Iran has not joined the nuclear weapons club. But suddenly the estimates have dramatically narrowed, with the International Atomic Energy Agency claiming Tehran could be a month away from producing weapons-grade fissile material for a bomb. That means uranium enriched by 90 per cent. Howeve, even if that were achieved the actual manufacture of a nuclear warhead capable of being fitted onto the top of a ballistic missile ready for launch would still be some way off, perhaps a year. So at this stage Iran's progress towards weapons-grade fissile material appears to be part of a heavy-duty diplomatic game being played by Tehran to put maximum pressure on the US, in particular, but also on the other signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal, to agree an updated version that would be of greater benefit to Iran. In other words a more rapid lifting of economic sanctions than had been allowed for under the initial accord signed by President Obama. If it is possible for Iran to "break out" and move from 60 per cent enrichment to 90 per cent in just a month, Tehran under its new president, the ultra conservative Ebrahim Raisi, has effectively thrown down the gauntlet to Washington. President Biden is keen to bring the US back into the 2015 deal after his predecessor's decision unilaterally to end America's involvement. Iran's interest in nuclear technology goes back to the 1950s when the Shah of Iran was included in President Eisenhower's "atoms for peace" programme in which nuclear technology was to be shared with other countries for peaceful purposes. The deal ended with the 1979 Iranian revolution but Tehran's interest never wained and Iran's scientists developed what is known as the nuclear fuel cycle which included installing gas centrifuge systems for enriching uranium. It was this capability which led to the imposition of international sanctions between 2002 and 2015. The breakthrough deal signed by Iran and the five members of the UN permanent security council plus Germany in 2015 under which Tehran agreed to limit its nuclear programme in return for a phased lifting of sanctions was only to last 25 years. Donald Trump denounced the deal and duly extracted the US from the list of signatories in May 2018 after he came to power. Now, potentially, the nuclear brinkmanship has reached a new dangerous level. Biden is already facing the challenge of North Korea raising the stakes with its recent test-firing of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles. If Biden gives in to Tehran's demands, the new Iranian president and Kim Jong-un of North Korea might feel they have got the measure of the US president.