Sunday 28 April 2019

A second Brexit referendum is getting nearer and nearer

All the talk in Westminster is about another referendum on Brexit but this time it would be a confirmatory decision. In other words, the politicians have totally failed to make any decision, so it will be up to the people to decide and then the House of Commons will be obliged to follow it whatever it is. I have been against a second referendum on the grounds that it would just cause more confusion, more division and more uncertainty. I still think that. However, after the farce we have faced in recent weeks, with extensions to the Brexit deadline and absolutely no clear way forward, perhaps there is no other solution. As tabloid newspapers would say, it's make-or-break time. Nobody but the most ardent Brexiteer wants a no-deal Brexit. So there are only two questions left to be answered on a second referendum ballot paper: Do you want the Theresa May Brexit deal, softened by Labour demands, or do you want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the European Union? So it's not Remain or Leave as such. It's more nuanced but amounts to the same thing. If the majority go for the Brexit deal because they are so desperate to leave the EU - even more than they did in 2016 - then it's a sort of victory for Theresa May and she might be able to survive for another year. If the majority go for staying in the EU it's a defeat for May, even though she herself is and was a Remainer. She would have to resign for failing to deliver the 2016 referendum mandate as she promised she would. She goes, there's a bloodthirsty Tory leadership campaign with all the candidates, even Boris Johnson, promising to do their best to reform the EU from within. Boris could win. Then there will have to be a general election, the Tories get annihilated, Labour wins but on victory night Jeremy Corbyn is politically stabbed in the back and a more moderate, more acceptable figure steps forward to lead Labour and the government. Arise Sir Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit secretary and former director of public prosecutions. Corbyn pledges revolution but no one is listening. Could this all really happen? Yes it could.

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