Wednesday 3 October 2018

Would Trump really target Russia's controversial cruise missile?

Kay Bailey Hutchinson is not a household name. Not until yesterday that is. She is the US Nato ambassador who hasn't really emerged until now. Then suddenly at a press conference prior to a Nato meeting she talked about Russia's intermediate-range nuclear-capable cruise missile which has been in development for ages and is probably operationally ready, and then repeated often-stated US concerns about how this weapon is in breach of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed by the US and the then Soviet Union. Nothing new there. Except Ambassador Hutchinson went one step further. She said if diplomacy (Trump/Pompeo pressure) failed to persuade the Russians to remove this missile from potentially threatening Europe, then the US might have to "take it out". Yes, take it out. As Nato ambassador she must be fully aware that in military parlance, taking something out means you bomb it to hell with a handcart. So there is an option, according to the ambassador, to target and destroy any of these missiles which are put on launchers on Russia's frontline with Europe. Russia insists this missile, called Novator 9M729, or by Nato the SSC-8, does not breach the INF Treaty. The treaty signed by Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan was intended to eliminate all Soviet and American ground-launched intermediate-range nuclear missiles, ballistic and cruise, with a range of between 500 and 5,500 kilometres. The key Russian systems were the SS-20s which, when they were first deployed, posed a clear danger to Europe; and the US, providing the nuclear umbrella for Europe, had nothing similar to act as a deterrent. As a result, ground-launched nuclear cruise missiles and Pershing 11 ballistic missiles were rushed into service into Europe, including cruise missiles at RAF Greenham Common and RAF Molesworth. This was proper Cold War stuff. So when Gorbachev and Reagan agreed to get rid of these weapons, it was an historic event. Both superpowers agreed to eliminate a complete category of missile. Under the treaty, nearly 2,700 missiles were destroyed by the June 1, 1991 deadline. But Vladimir Putin's Russia thought it could sneak in this new intermediate-range nuclear cruise missile without anyone noticing. Everyone in Nato agrees that the Novator cruise missile breaches the INF Treaty for the simple reason that it has the range prohibited in the text of the signed deal. Ambassador Hutchinson has now put the Novator firmly on the map. She wants to take it out!! It was probably an unfortunate choice of words but I wonder....She didn't get to where she is today by being either stupid or ignorant. I think her message to Moscow, probably delivered initially into her ear by the Trump White House was to put Putin on notice. The military option is now on the table. The Kremlin has already denounced her words as dangerous warmongering. But I think we're going to hear more about this. The selected words have a definite Trumplike ring to them.

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