Monday 1 October 2018

Who really thinks they can beat Trump in 2020?

The Democratic Party needs its own Trump. I don't mean it wants someone who looks and sounds like Trump, but, if the party has any chance of unseating him in the 2020 presidential election it's going to have to be a man or woman who can take on Trump face to face and win every time. Trump exudes confidence in his own abilities and believes all the potential Democratic rivals for the presidency are a joke. He is rude about all of them, especially Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, all of whom are right now considering running but not yet absolutely sure. I don't think they have a chance unless the hopelessly divided nation has a change of heart, a change of mood, and a yearning for a changed direction. That may happen but will it be enough to stop Trump from winning a second term? I think things will be a whole lot clearer in November when the midterm elections are held. For Trump to survive into a second term he needs a successful midterm election result. In other words, the Republicans have to retain their majority in both houses of Congress. If the Democrats win the majority in either the Senate or the House of Representatives, Trump's shock-and-awe style of politics will no longer work because he will be stymied by the political system, just as Obama was during his eight years in office. He started his administration with the Democrats in charge of both houses of Congress. But that was for only two years. In 2011 the Republicans took control of the House of Representatives while the Democrats had the majority in the Senate. That lasted for four years and then for his final two years, the Republicans had the majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. It meant months of frustration and anger and delays and government shutdowns. It was the American political system at its worst. Trump has been at war with the Democrats ever since coming into power and if he has to deal with a Congress without a Republican majority, the political breakdown could be immense. So, everything depends on the midterm elections on November 6; and the irony is that Trump's choice of judge for the Supreme Court - Brett Kavanaugh - could actually prove to be the most disastrous decision he ever made. Whatever the FBI discovers or fails to discover this week, the repercussions from Kavanaugh's battle of the truth with Christine Blasey Ford could jeopardise Trump's future in the White House. Millions of women will turn away from the Republicans for giving their support to Kavanaugh against Ford. If his nomination for the Supreme Court is confirmed by the Senate after the FBI inquiry is completed, there will be a backlash across the country, and ultimately Trump will lose. So however insulting he is towards his potential Democratic rivals for the 2020 presidential election, the Kavanaugh stain will stick. As a result, the Republicans could lose their majority in Congress and Trump could lose the election in 2020. But only if the Democrats come up with a feisty, charismatic new-look contender. Hillary Clinton was supposed to have been the super-professional, can't-lose candidate in 2016 but she lost to the political novice Donald Trump. No one has yet stepped forward from the Democratic Party with the right credentials to boot Trump from the White House.

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