Thursday 18 October 2018

Pompeo trying to play the diplomat in a gruesome murder

I suppose being what Americans like to call their "top diplomat", Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State, has been playing the trusty, diplomatic role over the Khashoggi murder affair. Even smiling when chatting to the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman - known universally as MBS - although more and more signs are pointing to his likely involvement in the demise of Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi dissident journalist. But Pompeo is also a former director of the CIA, an enormously powerful position. He knows what goes on in Saudi Arabia. He probably already knows everything about the murder of Khashoggi because the CIA and NSA will have fed all the stuff they've got on MBS to him before he left for Riyadh. NSA will have some electronic eavesdropping material, perhaps even from inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Trump has demanded a full investigation but he, too, will have all the American intelligence on his desk. So he already knows exactly what happened and probably who was to blame in Riyadh. The US has the most powerful intelligence apparatus on the planet. They get to know everything. So the sending of Pompeo to Riyadh was just a diplomatic dance to pledge Washington's continuing love and devotion however the Khashoggi affair turns out. King Salman knows that he needs Washington's support as much as Trump needs Riyadh on side, so the two of them will have to come up with some sort of clever ruse to bring clarity and closure to the killing of Khashoggi. The obvious option is to blame a senior flunky for overstepping the mark, and the deputy director of Saudi intelligence is already being earmarked for blame. But General Ahmed al-Assiri, the fall guy-in-waiting, is very close to MBS. So the other option is for the King to summon MBS and to strip him of his Crown Princeship and put him under house arrest at perhaps the same five-star hotel where MBS held dozens of princely types for corruption when he became Crown Prince. The problem is that Washington has spent a lot of time and energy courting MBS as the man who is going to change Saudi Arabia for the better. So Trump and Pompeo don't really want MBS to be cast into the wilderness. This is why Pompeo was caught on camera smiling as MBS spoke. Diplomacy entails a lot of false bonhomie. I bet Pompeo really wanted to put MBS over his knee and spank him for destroying what was supposed to have been a beautiful friendship between Washington and Riyadh. King Salman is an old man but he needs to take charge of his kingdom once again.

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