Saturday 21 April 2018

What's Kim's game?

Normally when two leaders are preparing for a summit that might change the whole world, or at least part of it, neither gives an inch by way of concessions beforehand. It’s the basic rules of the game. Yet Kim Jong-un has given away two of his biggest bargaining chips before he and Trump have even arrived in one of the seven or so summit locations currently being examined by Washington and Pyongyang. Kim has already made it clear he does not expect Trump to pull out all of the 23,5000 US troops from South Korea, and he has declared his nuclear tests and ballistic-missile testings are over. So it’s a win win for Trump already. Does this mean that Kim is so inexperienced and naive that he has given away too much before the bargaining has begun and from now on it’s going to be easy for the Grand Negotiator? That’s supposed to be Trump. Hell no. In my view Kim has been brilliant. What he has done is to bring the whole of the rest of the world to his side. Everyone thinks he’s terrific. Well done that man. We love you. The world is a safer place thanks to Kim Jong-un. Even Trump has fallen for it, tweeting his delight at the moves and saying how wonderful it all is. But actually there are now huge dangers for Trump. He has said the summit has to be about North Korea denuclearising, in other words, getting rid of all those nuclear warheads and long-range ballistic missiles. Is Kim going to do that? No, he isn’t. What he will say to Trump is, “Look, President Trump, we’re both leaders, we both run countries that are acknowledged nuclear powers, let’s treat each with respect and all will be fine.” Trump has said he will walk out if the summit doesn’t go the way he wants it to go. But think how that will look around the world, especially in China? Kim wins because he has already given away so much!! What has the US offered in return? It’s going to be tricky for Trump. I predict that the North Korea/South Korea summit will go exceptionally well. The two leaders, Kim and Moon, will end up being the best of friends. But Kim’s real power play is with Trump. He wants Trump to look him in the eye and acknowledge he has met his match. He wants respect and equality, and to get that Kim is not going to give away any of his nuclear warheads and long-range ballistic missiles. He will say to Trump, “You’ve got your nukes and I’ve got mine, so what’s the big deal?” Trump basically wants Kim to surrender all of his nukes and turn all his attention to farming. But Kim sees his nukes as an insurance policy. And having now said there will be no more testing and no more seriously provocative missile testing over the Sea of Japan, his nukes can stay all tucked up in their storage sites, not harming anyone! Not bad for a Little Rocket Man or “a crazy fat kid”, as Senator John McCain once called him. John Bolton, Trump’s Cold War warrior national security adviser, will have seen through all this and probably made the same conclusions. But Trump smells a big big success story coming up. If he’s not careful Kim will run rings around him and come out smelling of roses or whatever they grow in North Korea.

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