Monday 9 April 2018

Is the Douma chemical attack another red line for Trump?

On the face of it, there can be very little doubt that Douma in eastern Ghouta in Syria suffered a chemical attack on Saturday night. The proof is in the photographs sent around the world. I personally received an email with Arabic writing, showing a batch of photos of young children with foam coming from their mouths, within an hour or so of the attack. My first reaction - and this was well before the story actualy broke - was that it was propaganda, another social media fake news story. Such is the impact of fake news stories and pictures today that it is easy to become cynical. My doubts were removed when the story started breaking on BBC and elsewhere a few hours later. But it still made me think, could this be real or faked? It's this sort of questioning which Damsascus and Moscow and Tehran are able to exploit so cleverly. Today both Syria and Russia have proclaimed that the chemical attack never happened and that it had all been made up. Moscow said Russian experts and aid agencies had visited Douma and found no evidence of a chemical attack. That's when I knew for sure that this was genuinely an horrific chemical attack which killed dozens of men, women and children. Russia's credibility is now so low after a deluge of lies over the Skripal poisoning and other issues that almost everything they now say should be treated as the opposite of the truth. Trump will still need absolute proof, preferably from an international body that can go in and take samples. But the problem with that is that Douma is surrounded by Syrian regime forces and they are not going to allow UN specialists or some other expert organisation to enter the area to look for chemical traces. So if there is total obstruction by Assad forces, Trump and Macron and perhaps Theresa May will have to lean heavily on their intelligence agencies to provide the proof before deciding what to do next. Provided they come up with the evidence - and I think they will - Trump and his macho hawkish new national security adviser John Bolton will want to go for the whole works and start bombing Syrian airfields. Israel preempted everyone by launching an air raid yesterday on a Syrian airbase, perhaps as a way of encouraging Trump to do likewise. That would be very Netanyahu!

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