Monday 26 March 2018

Will Russia get the message?

Unfortunately, with six more years in power ahead of him I doubt Vladimir Putin will have missed any sleep over the mass expulsion of Russian "diplomats" from the US, UK and Europe. It sounds a big, big punishment for Moscow for the nerve agent poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter. But actually when you look at the numbers it isn't that harsh at all. The US is the exception with 60 Russian diplomats expelled. Well done Trump and Mike Pompeo. That is proper support for an ally. But Europe's support is absolutely minimal. In words they back UK totally. They all agreed it was "most likely" Russia was behind the poisoning. Actually let's call it biological warfare because dozens of people were affected apart from the two Russians. But in terms of kicking Russians out, the impact from members of the EU is so limited it will hardly be noticed. Two here, three there, one there and none at all from Greece, Portugal and Austria. Pretty pathetic really. Putin won't be bothered by the EU, but he will be seriously irritated by Washington. Sixty diplomats!! That's bold from Trump. But will Putin be so shocked that he backs down and agrees there is a small chance Rusia was behind the outrageous attack in Salisbury? No, of course not, because if he does, then he will lay himself open to international condemnation and calls for much tougher punishment. So it looks like we will get a series of tedious and pointless tit-for-tat expulsions, sanctions and other measures until the only sanction left will be to break off diplomatic relations. That still might have to happen, but no one really wants that because Russia and Putin are part of this world and we need to talk to them. All will depend on the next step taken by Putin.

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