Friday 23 March 2018

Trump's Bolt-On strategy

Last week it was a rumour, now it's fact. John Bolton is the new US National Security Adviser. Even though Donald Trump is supposed to hate Bolton's thick circus-clown-like moustache, the president obviously likes the former UN ambassador's style. So Bolton, toughest of tough hawks, has been bolted-on to Trump's foreign policy, a voice of bellicose aggressiveness. The US in his view should be planning a war with North Korea and Iran. What worries me is where now will be the voice of calm inside the White House? With McMaster ousted, that leaves General John Kelly as chief of staff but how long will he survive? With Mike Pompeo at State and Bolton as national security adviser, who is going to have the courage to whisper into the president's ear, "No, Mr President, don't go down that path, don't listen to Bolton, he's an idiot." I can't think of anyone, except possibly Jim Mattis at the Pentagon. There's the sassy Nikki Hayley, US ambassador to the UN, but she's not often in the White House and I can't see her mouthing off against Bolton. Jared Kushner could possibly have been a sensible voice - at least he's a different generation from the Moustachioed One - but he seems to have lost both credibility and access to the Oval Office. So Trump who never exactly listened to reason, will now be surrounded by totally like-minded megaphone personalities. Is this the right combination to elicit a meaningful deal with Kim Jong-un or is the North Korean leader going to shy away from doing business with such a triumvirate - Trump/Pompeo/Bolton? There is no way of knowing but Kim will be coming to the summit in May with a nagging thought in the back of his mind. Bolton was all for starting a war with North Korea and that might spoil the occasion. Or maybe it will persuade Kim that taking on the US is a suicidal venture. It's very dfficult to predict. In general, though, having Bolton back in a powerful position is not good news.

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