Wednesday 28 March 2018

What are Kim and Xi really up to?

Now we know for sure that it was Kim and Xi having nice little chats together in Beijing, the big question is: what exactly is Kim Jong-un up to, and also what exactly are Kim and Xi Zinping up to together? What is their scheme? What do they want at the end of the summit with Trump? One thing it won't be is a denuclearised North Korea and the status quo in South Korea. If Kim is going to give up being a nuclear power - he NEVER will - he will want a huge amount as a quid pro quo, something along these lines: NO nukes in South Korea, NO US nuke umbrella for South Korea, NO US defence pact to defend South Korea from North Korea, a promise from Washington in writing NEVER to attack North Korea, and if there is to be any denuclearising on North Korea's part it will be phased over a period of, say, 25 years. I think Kim will be so insistent that he gets what he wants that if Trump starts the summit chat by saying North Korea must get rid of all of its nuclear weapons immediately before anything else is even considered, the summit will be over in a matter of hours. It will be followed by a joint statement from Pyongyang and Beijing condemning Washington for demanding unacceptable terms. It will be important for Trump and his advisers, especially John Bolton who will be itching to get his hands on Kim's nukes, to realise that North Korea now has a huge nuclear weapons industry. There are masses of buildings, underground and above ground, is Kim going to bash them all down for the benefit of the world community? Oh no!! Kim has achieved what he wanted. He is a nuclear mafioso. He has completed the onerous task begun by his grandfaher and father and now wants to play a star role on the world stage. He has plenty of cards in his hand and he believes he can basically tell Trump what to do. Now this is fantasy of course, even with Xi Zinping with his appalling oily smile behind him. He is the nuclear kid on the block whereas Trump, God help us, is the Big Cheese nuclear godfather with enough of the stuff to annihilate North Korea, Russia and China all in one go. Moustacheod Bolton will want to get this message across to the Rocket Man on Day One. But Kim is by no means empty-handed, and with his handful of nukes - 20-30 - and an impressive array of long-range ballistic missiles, and his friendly nuclear neighbour, he could put Trump on the spot. Trump will have to give something in return, but if he gives too much in all the excitement, the whole of America's security strategy in Asia could go topsy-turvy. No wonder President-for-ever Xi looks pleased with himself.

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