Tuesday 8 August 2017

Will sanctions on North Korea work?

The only step available to punish North Korea was more sanctions. They are aimed at reducing North Korea's exports by a third. Well that sounds pretty tough, but I don't think sanctions are going to make Kim Jong un change his mind and say to the world: "Ok I give up. I'm going to dismantle all my nuclear weapons, throw away my ballistic missiles and be a good boy from now on." Sanctions will make it tough for the country economically, but the people will suffer more than Kim. He will still get what he needs for his secret programmes because there are always people in this world who are prepared to make money out of sanction-busting, even to supply Pyongyang with any components he might need to complete his nuclear ICBM programme. For all the work put into nuclear non-proliferation over the last few years, Kim has never had much trouble getting the help he needs. So his coal exports are going to be cut, even China has suspended its imports of North Korean coal, but will that persuade Kim to act differently? There's already huge evidence of malnutrition in the country. Kim doesn't care about his people. All he wants from them is devotion, total loyalty and a false display of happiness. The nuclear and ballistic missile programme will continue. The only question mark is: will Kim order another ICBM test launch in the next few months, ignoring Beijing's request (not order) for the tests to stop. As China supported the new sanctions in the UN Security Council I suspect Kim will say to himself: "Ok, you lot, you're all against me now, just you wait and see what I've got planned next." The new sanctions will make Kim even more dangerous, General McMaster. I'm not against the sanctions, I don't think the rest of the world had any choice, but don't expect Kim to jump to attention and be nice for a change. Is there any possibility that anyone in Pyongyang, preferably military, has begun to have doubts and may start to think about regime-change for the sake of the country's future existence? There probably are such people but I doubt they will ever have the courage to do anything about it. A dictatorship always creates fear, and fear rarely leads to courage. The trouble is, this particular dictator has real nuclear weapons - unlike Saddam Hussein - and ballistic missiles that can travel thousands of miles. He is also young and relatively unworldly. He probably doesn't understand how Washington works, he clearly refuses to believe that Trump may be forced to resort to military action. Maybe he thinks that just because he has nuclear weapons the rest of the world will do his bidding. Sorry, Mr Dictator, the real world doesn't act like that. But he is living in a dangerous cocoon, he probably doesn't read the New York Times and Washington Post every day and with all his fawning officials around him, he may think he is currently ruling the world. Someone needs to go and see Kim and spell it out for him. It can't be South Korea, because Kim won't listen, it can't be Trump or Rex Tillerson because he will refuse to see them. Perhaps that Americam basketball player, Dennis Rodman, who is "mates" with Kim, could go as a special envoy!

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