Tump gives Ukraine new intelligence gift

The war between Russia and Ukraine is about to change dramatically in Kyiv’s favour. President Trump has decided to help Kyiv target key energy installations inside Russia with long-range weapons by providing satellite imagery to guarantee precision strikes. Such a bold move, never considered appropriate or justified by the Biden administration, will take the battle further inside Russian territory, and potentially, cause catastrophic damage to President Putin’s war economy. The decision, reported in The Wall Street Journal, follows confirmation from Vice President JD Vance that Trump is also considering giving President Zelensky land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles. With a range of around 1,500 miles, Kyiv would possess one of America’s most successful combat weapon systems, capable of reaching Moscow from any point within Ukraine. Tomahawks, armed with conventional warheads, are normally associated with submarine-launched or ship-fired operations. But there is a ground-launched version developed for the US Army and Marine Corps which, if delivered to Ukraine, would add to Kyiv’s inventory of home-grown longe-range weapons which have already been used to target Russian oil refineries. Both the consideration of providing Tomahawks and the reported agreement to hand Kyiv intelligence of Russia’s strategic energy sites have raised the stakes beyond anything contemplated by Trump’s predecessor. President Biden was always wary of giving Ukraine’s President Zelensky the tools for striking deep inside Russia itself, concerned that it would provoke a dangerous escalation with Moscow. Even when he, belatedly, approved the dispatching of the US Army’s ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of 190 miles, he imposed restrictions on their use if fired over the border into Russia. However, there were no limits placed on the use of US intelligence to help Ukraine pinpoint Russian troop positions, arms depots and tank movements inside Ukraine. US intelligence, both satellite images and electronic signals communications, was part of the package from the moment Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In the early days of the war, without this intelligence assistance, Ukraine would never have been able to achieve the battlefield successes which basically halted the Russian invasion force in its tracks. The most notable use of American intelligence during the first stages of the war was the sinking of the guided-missile cruiser, Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, on April 14, 2022. US naval intelligence and satellite imagery provided the coordinates for the warship on patrol in the Black Sea, and Ukraine fired two domestically-built Neptune anti-ship missiles which fatally hit Moskva about 80 nautical miles off the port of Odessa. The Pentagon under the Biden administration had one particular reservation about the Ukrainian military’s use of US intelligence inside Ukraine itself. A number of top Russian commanders were killed and it was reported their precise location had been pinpointed by American satellites. However, the Pentagon said this wasn’t the case. John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman at the time, said US intelligence would not have been provided to target individual Russian generals. Nevertheless, the role of intelligence in the more than three years of war has helped to balance out the superiority enjoyed by Russia in terms of both manpower and firepower. The CIA, the National Security Agency (NSA) and the full panoply of America’s intelligence apparatus have been intimately, though secretly, involved in guiding the Ukrainian military and providing advice on targeting policy, and early warning of Russian missile attacks and troop movements. In February last year The New York Times reported that Ukraine had built a special underground bunker, partly financed and equipped by the CIA, in which Ukrainian soldiers were able to track Russian spy satellites and eavesdrop on conversations between different Russian commanders and their units. It was also reported that the CIA helped to set up and support a dozen secret locations along the border with Russia from where Russian troop activity could be monitored. Now, Trump appears to have decided that the gloves should come off in terms of supplying Ukraine with intelligence, specifically aimed at striking Russia’s huge network of energy installations, such as refineries, oil pipelines and power stations. Putin is dependent on the sale of oil and natural gas to still-willing customers, such as China, India and Turkey, to fund the war with Ukraine. Trump dramatically reversed his view on Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia when, after talking to Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last month, he declared that Kyiv could after all seize back all the territory lost to the Russian troops. He said Putin was in deep economic trouble. Trump’s decision to extend the gift of intelligence to Kyiv to cover Russia’s energy infrastructure will be a huge blow to Moscow and could potentially persuade Putin to seek a negotiated settlement to save his war economy from ruin. NB:MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTh: buy from Amazon, Rowanvale Books, Waterstones.