Friday, 20 June 2025

Will two weeks bring the result Trump wants?

Donald Trump likes putting things off for two weeks. He has done it before. The thinking is that it builds up pressure on "the enemy", whoever that is, and forces them to plead for a deal. But will it work this time? With Israel continuing every day and night dropping bombs and firing missiles at Iran, there will be no let-up for the Tehran regime. But throughout the next two weeks, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will know that Trump is waiting for him to crumble and give in. As the days tick by, that pressure is going to get bigger and bigger. It doesn't matter what the Europeans and Canada do to try and forge some diplomatic deal. This is all about Trump versus Khamenei. The die has been cast and the Iranian leader will be the one who blinks, not Trump. I think that if by the time the two weeks have passed and Tehran has refused to budge, Trump will order the US military to finish the job the Israelis have started. Khamenei must know that. So it's all up to him. His whole purpose in life is to make sure he and the Islamic Republic under his leadership survive. And it may not survive if the US enters the war. So, to avoid regime change, the ayatollah will seek a deal. That's my prediction. However, there is a big extra ingredient here. How will the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps react if the Supreme Leader caves in? It could cause a revolution of a different kind, not the demise of the Islamic Republic but a take-over by the IRGC, the military taking even more control than they do today. Trump would hope that US bombing of Iran's nuke plants will lead to an uprising in the country with democracry shining through. That outcome would seem unrealistic even if the Supreme Leader is toppled.

No comments:

Post a Comment