Thursday, 15 May 2025

Putin no-show dooms the Ukraine "peace" talks

So, Vladimir Putin's name is not on the manifest nor on the list of Russian delegates heading for peace/ceasefire/anything talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. Had he gone, Donald Trump would probably have gone, too, and there might just have been a better chance of a decent outcome. But Putin has stayed in Moscow, and Trump will go back to Washington after completing his Middle East trip. A golden opportunity lost. It was never really on the cards. Putin is nowhere near the stage when he wants or needs to have a face-to-face on the war in Ukraine with Trump. If he had met Trump in Istanbul the world would have expected some sort of grand result, if not a declaration that the war was going to stop on a certain date. So Putin's best option, only option, was to not bother with the Istanbul meeting and instead, send his former culture minister with nothing to say except the usuual formula about needing to eliminate the root causes of the problem with Ukraine, ie its very existence. Putin also has the tricky matter of being wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court and could be arrested if he leaves Russia, although Turkey is not a signatory, so he would have been fine. But it was probably a tiny issue for the Russian president. Mostly it was a case of Putin saying no, not yet, if ever. He doesn't want to sit down in the same room as Zelensky anyway and will now wait to see if Trump insists on calling for a summit. But he is in no hurry.

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