Thursday 2 March 2023

What to do about Iran and its nukes programme?

Very soon, possibly in the next six to 12 months, Iran and its nukes programme is going to be the number one priority on President Biden's list of foreign policy decisions, even above the war in Ukraine and relations with China. The Pentagon has said that Iran could take just 12 days to produce enough bomb-grade enriched uranium to build a nuclear device. The progress Tehran has made in enriching uranium to the 90 per cent level it needs for a bomb has been staggering. Ever since Trump scrapped the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Obama, Iran has gone hell for leather to develop the fissile material for a nuclear weapon and now they are a mere one week and five days away from fulfilling that objective if they decide to go for it. It doesn't mean Iran will have a deployable nuclear ballisic missile ready for action. Having the right-level nuclear material and putting it in a warhead that fits on the tip of a missile would probably take another few months. But the moment Iran has succeeded in enriching uranium to 90 per cent, the countdown begins. Iran has already managed to get to 83.7 per cent, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. So it won't be long. Then, when they have achieved the 90 per cent, what happens next? Successive US presidents have vowed that Iran will never be allowed to develop a nuclear bomb but what is the US prepared to do to stop Tehran moving from 83.7 per cent to 90 per cent? The way Benjamin Netanyahu is governing Israel, with violence between Israel and the Palestinians rising significantly, I suspect that the reelected Israeli leader will be knocking on the door of the Pentagon and the White House demanding action to stop Iran, and if he fails to get reassuring nods from the Americans he will go ahead and do what he thinks is required to safeguard Israel. It takes little imagination to predict what that might involve and then we will have yet another world crisis on our hands. So, time is running out and how Biden responds may decide whether Iran has nuclear bomb-grade uranium by the end of this year.

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