Monday 20 March 2023

The Dear Friends - Vladimir and Xi. Really?

It's all a bit sickening really, watching Vladimir Putin and Xi Zinping cosying up to each other. Two dear friends together bent on opposing everything western, anything where the US has leadership responsibilities. But it's all role-playing, especially on the part of China's president. I can't imagine he has any genuine affection for Putin and probably believes that the invasion of Ukraine is a huge mistake. But it serves his purpose to gang up with Putin against the US and so it will be all smiles during his three-day visit to Russia. US intelligence will be watching out and listening out for any sign that Xi is going to offer arms to his friend to continue pursuing the war in Ukraine. Xi is the Great Calculator, so I somehow doubt he will make this mistake. Xi wants to be seen to be the peacemaker and sending Moscow munitions from Chinese weapons factories would undermine if not ruin his strategy. So I think he will tell Putin it's a no to Chinese weapons but there could well be added support, financial or otherwise, which will help Putin. Whatever is offered, it's not going to end the war in Ukraine any time in the near future. Putin will get great comfort in the knowledge that Xi is on his side. It will boost his ambitions to grab as much of Ukraine as possible in the next nine months. One consequence of the love-in between Xi and Putin? Biden and co will have to accelerate the weapons flow to Kyiv and think seriously about sending much longer range missiles and advanced fighter jets. So the war is going to get worse and more dangerous and more destructive.

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