Will Trump go even tougher on Iran?

The Trump administration has effectively mounted an economic blockade on Iran to force Tehran to surrender to the president's wishes which are: for Iran to give up all thought of developing nuclear weapons, stop sponsoring terrorism, and end all malign military interventions in the Middle East and elsewhere. The Tehran leadership has said it will never surrender. Well, Trump now has the opportunity to make surrender slightly more likely. It is the time of year when the US administration has to decide whether to renew waivers which allow the Iranian government to continue to develop civil nuclear power and enable international companies to assist Tehran in this regard. Strange though it may seem, when Trump withdrew from the 2015 Obama-sponsored Iran nuclear deal, he still allowed Tehran to pursue a civil nuclear programme and introduced waivers to ensure that took place. This was a big deal for Tehran because it meant it could still have a nuclear programme, albeit strictly for civil purposes. But a civil nuclear programme can still provide the basic requirements for something more sinister. The waivers decision comes up in August but already key cabinet members such as John Bolton, national security adviser, and Mike Pompeo, secretary of state, are urging Trump not to renew the waivers. This would be a huge blow to Tehran. They would argue, no doubt, that such a move would be against international laws because it would prevent a nation from fulfilling its electricity supply needs. However, the US has argued that Iran doesn't need nuclear power to meet its electricity requirements. You may recall that when Trump came to power, he promised to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran but for some considerable time the US remained a part of the deal which meant the president signing an annual renewal notice for Congress to delay any implementation of economic sanctions. Then, wham, he pulled out in 2018, and the sanctions came into play. But the civil nuclear programme was allowed to continue. With tensions as high as they are between the US and Iran, the ending of this waiver will raise the stakes about tenfold. Trump will find it very difficult not to agree with Pompeo and Bolton, and I expect him to make an announcement in August that he will not renew the waiver. This will be yet another dangerous moment in the confrontaton between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, Europe, including the UK, is doing its best to undermine the Trump administration's resolve by coming up with new financial arrangements to help Iran's economy, as per the 2015 nuclear deal to which they remain firm signatories.