President Trump's red line

MY TIMES PIECE TODAY President Trump has set a new red line for military action against Iran: the death of one American at the hands of the Iranians would be the trigger for an attack. Despite his dramatic change of mind over approving a dawn strike yesterday (Frid) on Iranian air defence and missile sites, the president has signalled to Tehran that his red line would be crossed if an American were to be killed in the current tense confrontation in the Gulf. Previously, senior US commanders have indicated that the military operating in the Gulf would defend themselves against targeted attacks by the Iranians on any American assets or international shipping under their protection. On Tuesday, General Paul Selva, vice chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, warned: “If the Iranians come after US citizens, US assets or US military, we reserve the right to respond with a military action., and they need to know that. It needs to be very clear.” However, Mr Trump has now simplified that ultimatum from the Pentagon’s second most senior military chief by pointing to the death of an American as the trigger for war. He appears to have decided that the shooting down of the US military’s most expensive surveillance drone, the $222.7 million Global Hawk, was not a just reason for military retaliation because it was a remote-controlled unmanned aircraft. His death-of-an-American red line could put the president in an uncomfortable position if he were to demur again in the event of an Iranian strike. Mr Trump was scathing of his predecessor, Barak Obama, when he backed down from attacking the Syrian regime in 2012 after evidence showed the Syrians had crossed his personal red line by using chemical weapons in strikes on citizens. In preparation for a possible military confrontation, the US now has an armada of warships in the Gulf, and every day fighter jets and reconnaissance aircraft from the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln are flying operations over the waterway, though keeping clear of the 12-mile Iranian territorial airspace. The carrier, backed up by a guided-missile cruiser, three guided-missile destroyers, an amphibious warship with several hundred Marines on board and at least one Los Angeles-class “hunter killer” submarine armed with Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, represent America’s frontline strike force in the Gulf. They are supported by two B-52H strategic bombers and multiple other aircraft based in Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. As proved by the successful Iranian attack on the US Air Force Global Hawk drone, Iran has a large inventory of surface-to-air missiles. Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said if the Global Hawk had been operating at its normal altitude of 40,000ft, the Iranians would have needed to use either an SA-20 or a Sayyad-2 or Sayyad-3 missile, which have the required range. The Iranians have an abundance of old Russian Sam missiles. But Mr Barrie said Iran faced challenges with updating their missiles and other weapon systems “because of sanctions and lack of cash”. Nevertheless, Iran has claimed to possess some advanced weapon systems, such as an anti-ship ballistic missile called Khalij Fars with a range of 300 kilometres, a long-range cruise missile called Soumar, and a new type of submarine-launched torpedo, the Jask-2, with a range of 19 miles. Iran’s air force has a mixture of American and Russian aircraft but of the 336 in its inventory, many of them would be non-operational because of the difficulty of finding spare parts. Iran still flies aircraft long-since retired by the US Air Force, such as F-4 Phantoms and F-14 Tomcats. The US has a history of military confrontation with Iran.: *In 1979, 52 US diplomats were seized in Tehran and held hostage for 444 days. In April 1980, President Carter authorised Operation Eagle Claw, a covert mission to rescue them. But it was aborted after the troop-carrying helicopters crashed in a sandstorm in the desert. *In 1983 two suicide bomb attacks by Hezbollah in Beirut led to multiple American deaths, and were blamed on the Iranians. Seventeen Americans were killed in an attack on the embassy in the Lebanese capital, and 241 US citizens, 220 of them Marine peacekeepers, died after a truck-bomb attack on the Marine barracks. *In 1987 the US attacked two Iranian oil platforms in Operation Nimble Archer in retaliation for Iran’s missile strike on a Kuwaiti oil tanker. *In 1988, the US launched Operation Praying Mantis against Iran after an American guided-missile destroyer was hit by a mine in the Gulf. Half of Iran’s navy was either sunk or severely damaged.