Tuesday 11 June 2019

Putin has long-term plans for Venezuela

Venezuela and Putin watchers got excited when a Russian defence contracting firm was suddenly pulled out of Caracas. What did it mean? Was Moscow beginning to change its mind and back off supporting Maduro, the hopelessly incompetent leader of the country and big-time destroyer of millions of people's lives and livelihoods? No such luck. Maduro had just failed to pay their bills. Putin doesn't care how appalling Maduro is because having him still in power in Caracas serves his purpose well. Putin wants Venezuela as a strategic base for Russian warships and submarines and long-range bombers, and he wants to squeeze Maduro, in return for his diplomatic and military support to get cheap deals for the country's oil and other natural resources. Maduro will hand over the lot to make sure he retains Putin's backing. This of course is bad news for Trump's policy which is to get Maduro overthrown by hefty economic sanctions and replaced by the man who is recognised by the US and many other countries in the West as the legitimate interim president, Juan Guaido. When Mike Pompeo went to Moscow recently to see Putin he pressured the Russian leader to stop supporting Maduro, pointing out that he was ruining his country. I don't know how Putin responded to the US secretary of state but I'm sure he smiled beatifically, knowing full well that he had absolutely no intention of giving up on his favourite Latin American leader. Having visiting rights for his warships and nuclear-capable bombers, Putin is on a winner. More than anything he knows that Russia's military support for Venezuela which includes having contracted troops in Caracas as military advisers, irritates Washington. And he likes doing that. So Maduro, I'm sorry to say, is going to survive although his country will continue to suffer the worst inflation in the world. Poor Guaido can do little to change things. He is a made-up leader with no power.

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