Ukraine's counter-offensive has to succeed

It's a cliche to say it but this year is Ukraine's make-or-break year. The long-awaited counter-offensive in the east HAS to succeed. Kyiv's troops must retake large chunks of the Donbas region to make a difference. Such a difference that Putin starts suing for a settlement before he loses everything. But if the counter-offensive just retakes a few bits here and there, Putin will stick it out and keep his forces in position for ever. He is not going to cede the territory his invasion force has occupied unless the Ukrainians give him no choice. But then again if Ukraine gets to the point where Putin has no choice but to give in, he will probably start using non-conventional weapons, justifying it on the grounds, as he would put it, that Russian land (Russian illegally seized and occupied land) was under existential threat. So, as has been the case ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, there is no easy or obvious end to this war. The counter-offensivem successful or not, will be the key yardstick for what happens in the second half of this year. Everyone is now waiting for the Ukrainian counter-offensive to begin to see which way the war is going to go. No one at this point knows the answer. Not in Kyiv, not in Washington, not in Moscow and not in Beijing. My prediction? With western tanks in play for the first time, I think Ukraine WILL make some headway but not enough to force Putin to change his strategy. Putin believes he has the luxury of time and he is convinced that neither Ukraine nor its western backers have time on their side. It's up to Ukraine to prove him wrong.

Joe Biden says he is an honourable man. Most would agree.

Joe Biden has only been US president for two years and four months. But apart from the withdrawal from Afghanistan debacle which wasn't totally his fault, I think he has proved he is a pretty competent and effective leader of the free world, and a decent guy to boot. So his claim in a TV interview that he is experienced and honourable, and ready for a second term never mind the fixation about his age and doubts about his vice president, Kamala Harris, has some justified weight behind it. No one can point to the president and claim he is power-crazy or corrupt or weak or cowardly or in any way a failure. He may not be the most inspiring president or the most active. But above all else, he is an ok guy and I would have thought most of his fellow leaders in the western world and elsewhere enjoy, not fear, his company, respect, not belittle, his leadership, and welcome his straightforward, honest approach to policymaking. All of which is a total contrast to the way people felt about Donald Trump, with the exception of course of the millions of American citizens who thought Trump was some kind of messiah. Decency, honour, competence and tons of experience are surely vital characteristics for the president of the United States. So whatever the concerns about Biden's age - 86 by the time he would end his second term - please, American voters, go for the decent bloke and not the scary former president when you come to make your choice.

How the Patriot missile will change the face of the war in Ukraine

The arrival and deployment of the US Patriot air-defence anti-missile system in Ukraine marks a crucial moment in the war. At last the Ukrainian military have a weapon which can shoot down Russian fighter aircraft, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles. Ukraine claims to have used a Patriot to shoot down a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile capable of travelling at up to ten times the speed of sound. That's a helluva achievement and should make Putin worry that his most deadly missile now looks to be vulnerable. The problem for the Ukrainians is that they simply don't have enough Patriots to protect every city and town. They have two batteries of launchers. That may be two or possiby more actual Patriot systems and then a limited supply of the missiles. To deter Putin from ordering all his fighter aircraft over the border to attack high-value targets, the Patriot is going to have to be lined up against them en masse. I can see the Pentagon coming under huge pressure over the next few weeks to send more and more Patriots because they will make a massive difference to the whole battle landscape. Putin has always claimed that his hypersonic missiles are indestructible because they go too fast and can be manoeuvred in flight to evade enemy radars. That boast is now an empty one and shooting a Kinzhal down is a helluva fillip for the Ukrainians.

Why Biden can't go to the Charles and Camilla coronation

I thought it was a bit odd that Joe Biden had declined to come to the coronation of King Charles and Queen Camillla and then I remembered something which was directed at me every year on August 24 when I was Pentagon correspondent and working from the world's biggest office building. "You British," I was reminded at each anniversary, "sacked Washington and burned down the White House." August 24, 1814, during the colonial war between Britain and the United States. The Capitol and the Library of Congress were also burned down. The Brits and Yanks may enjoy a special relationship but dang! do they remember what we did to their capital in 1814! So it was quite appropriate that Biden should not come to Charles's coronation. Instead he is sending his wife, First Lady Jill Biden, and also John Kerry, the tallest man in the Biden administration. American presidents historically don't do British coronations. Eisenhower didn't go to Queen Elizabeth II's coronation, and there was never any question of Biden going to Charles's. It all goes back to the sacking of the White House! Long memories.

Drone assassination plot? What a load of.....

The Kremlin is either very nervous or just having fun with a bit of black propaganda. In wartime the first thing that can rarely be relied on is the truth. So the Kremlin's claim that Ukraine had launched two armed drones to assassinate Vladimir Putin is so far-fetched that it's laughable. First of all I seriously doubt Ukraine has a drone of sufficient range to hit the Kremlin unless it were to be launched from well inside the Russian border and second of all, unless the Russian president makes a habit of sitting on or just under the Kremlin roof, I fail to see how any drone strike could he classed as a realistic plot to remove the Russian president. So it's all a load of nonsense but of course it mightily stirred up the crazies in the Duma and in the Kremlin, especially the former prime minister and briefly president, Dmitry Medvedev, who these days has joined the "let's nuke 'em" brigade with such enthusiasm you do wonder what he is eating for breakfast. It's far more likely that those clever chaps in the FSB (former KGB) carried out the "drone" strike, causing them to explode just above the roof to avoid any damage, and then promptly blamed Zelensky and co for the dastardly plot, in the hope that the whole country would rise up in anger and demand Putin take revenge. Which is what he did, ordering a mass launching of missiles against Ukrainian towns and cities. It's all so cynical I can't imagine anyone with a brain in their head would believe the Kremlin story that Kyiv was out to get Putin who, by the way, wasn't even there but was sitting quite comfortably in his out-of-town residence.

Counting the dead in Ukraine

Counting the Russian death toll in the war in Ukraine has become a top priority for western intelligence, partly, it is aassumed, to enable officials to tell the world how badly Putin is doing. The casualty figures continue to be totally staggering. According to US intelligence, and relaid by John Kirby, press spokesman for the White House National Security Council, 20,000 Russian soldiers - regular and Wagner mercenary (prison convicts) - have been killed since December, the majority during the continuing battle for the small city of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian military have openly said they are trying to kill as many Russian sodiers as possible before launching their long-awaited counter-offensive in eastern Ukraine. Is anyone in the Kremlin counting the dead? Does Putin know how many of his troops are being killed and wounded and, if so, does he have even a moment's hesitation about whether to carry or not? How long can this slaughter go on for? Obviously the Ukrainians have lost huge numbers too but the White House isn't telling. But the figure is probably not far off from the Russian death toll. But Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty, for its nation, for its people, so the sacrifices, although horrific, will not be in vain provided Russian troops are driven out and defeated. So the big question for Putin is: as commander-in-chief, does he lose sleep over the mounting casualties from his war, does he care, and will there come a point when he realises a breaking-point has been reached? I fear the answer is NO to all these questions. He will drive on until he has carved up the whole of eastern Ukraine, never mind how many die in the process. For this reason the Ukrainian counter-offensive, when it comes, will have to be so devastatingly successful that it WILL make Putin hesitate. That's a lot to ask of the Ukrainian military who have not stopped fighting for more than 14 months.

Will the coronation of King Charles III be a magical moment or just a day out?

The coronation of King Charles III and Queen Camilla is just five days away and people are already putting up tents along the Mall so that they can get the best views as the famous old creaky gold coronation coach goes by with a waving monarch. So is this day - May 6 - going to be a wondrous, magical occasion for everyone living in this great country and also for millions of others around the world, or has the whole idea of kings and queens gone slightly off the boil in this super-stressful, struggling, social-media-mad, war-damaged planet? The answer is: probably the latter. There is no doubt that the pageantry will be wonderful to watch and it will be a reminder that we Brits can do public ceremonial occasions like no other nation on earth. But magical, romantic, emotional and awesome? Not so much. This is partly or mainly because Charles has been around for decades waiting to take over the top spot in the monarchy, so we know him as well as we are allowed to - and actually a lot more because of all the excrutiatingly embarrassing intercepted phone calls between him and Camilla way back during their secret love affair - and he is in his 70s, and his wife, soon to be our new queen, is of the same agee. The two of them look like a very happily married couple of pensioners. Such a contrast - and it's not their fault of course - to when Princess Elizabeth became queen in her 20s. She was so pretty and so unprepared for taking over the monarchy after the sudden death of her father that she became the darling of the nation. Everyone sympathised with the immense responsibility placed on her shoulders and loved her speech when she promised to serve her subjects till the day she died. THAT was a magical moment, and the coronation WAS an awesome spectacle. The one on May 6 has no hope of matching the one on June 2, 1953. But it will be a nice day out and by all accounts the sun will be shining. So a bit of true Brit ceremonial magic but not magical.