Ukraine's counter-offensive has to succeed

It's a cliche to say it but this year is Ukraine's make-or-break year. The long-awaited counter-offensive in the east HAS to succeed. Kyiv's troops must retake large chunks of the Donbas region to make a difference. Such a difference that Putin starts suing for a settlement before he loses everything. But if the counter-offensive just retakes a few bits here and there, Putin will stick it out and keep his forces in position for ever. He is not going to cede the territory his invasion force has occupied unless the Ukrainians give him no choice. But then again if Ukraine gets to the point where Putin has no choice but to give in, he will probably start using non-conventional weapons, justifying it on the grounds, as he would put it, that Russian land (Russian illegally seized and occupied land) was under existential threat. So, as has been the case ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, there is no easy or obvious end to this war. The counter-offensivem successful or not, will be the key yardstick for what happens in the second half of this year. Everyone is now waiting for the Ukrainian counter-offensive to begin to see which way the war is going to go. No one at this point knows the answer. Not in Kyiv, not in Washington, not in Moscow and not in Beijing. My prediction? With western tanks in play for the first time, I think Ukraine WILL make some headway but not enough to force Putin to change his strategy. Putin believes he has the luxury of time and he is convinced that neither Ukraine nor its western backers have time on their side. It's up to Ukraine to prove him wrong.