Monday, 29 September 2025
Why is Trump so optimistic about a Gaza deal?
Everyone is talking about a peace settlement for Gaza but on the ground there is absolutely no evidence that either Israel or Hamas are ready to sign anything. Trump tells us that a lot of talking is going on behind the scenes between Israel, the US, Arab countries and Hamas to find the formula that has so far failed to materialise in nearly two years of war. JD Vance has joined those suggesting a deal might be in the offing but he wisely admits something could always go wrong at the last minute. Like Hamas saying no or Israel deciding to carry on until every single member of Hamas has been killed. No one for sure knows how many Hamas fighters have been killed but it must be close to 18,000 or perhaps even more. But that still means they have another 5,000-10,000 holding on to the remaining hostages and launching sporadic raids on Israel Defence Forces troops. Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be satisfied if that number of combatants are still free to attack Israel? I very much doubt it. So whatever deal is currently being discussed, the chances of it working out are slim at best. As for post-war Gaza, there are now so many ideas, none of which will inspire the Palestinians who want their own government and their own independence. One of the proposals is for Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, to run a temporary administration when the war finally stops. Blair is a class act and has been involved in Middle East peacemaking efforts for a long time. But I cannot imagine the Palestinian people in Gaza will settle for a Brit to run their lives. So, I fear the war is still a long way from ending.
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