Monday, 23 June 2025

How can Trump keep it a short war with Iran?

The length and scale of the American confrontation with Iran will depend on two things: how much destruction was actually caused by the 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators dropped by the seven B-2 Sprit bombers on the nuclear sites at Fordow and Natanz, and by the US Navy submarine Tomahawks on Isfahan; and how Iran retaliates to the bombings. If, after battle-damage assessments have been completed, it's discovered that much of Fordow still survives and Natanz, too, Trump will have little alternative but to send the bombers back for another round of MOP strikes, although the inventory of these mighty bombs is limited. Likewise, if Iran launches attacks on American troops based in the Middle East or tries to close the Strait of Hormuz entrance into the Gulf waterway with mines, then Trump will have to do what he said he would do which is to strike back at multiple targets in Iran. Either way, the result will be a more prolonged battle with Iran, something which neither his political supporters at home nor the American people want. Iran will no doubt feel that it has to respond to the B-2 strikes but Tehran knows that if it goes big, the US response will be huge. Can they take that risk? And if they block the Strait of Hormuz, stopping all shipping, much of it carrying oil around the world, the repercusions will be enormous economically and Iran will face significant American military action. Also, blocking the narrow channel into the Gulf waterway will hurt Iran's economy because oil from Iran bound for China goes through the waterway. Not that long ago, Iran might have been able to rely on Hezbollah or Hamas to carry out retaliatory attacks on the Americans, but each of these organisations have been devastated by Israeli attacks over the last 20 months. Iran's proxy forces are no longer capable of launching major attacks on the Americans. My feeling is that the US battle-damage assessment carried out by the Pentagon will show that insufficient damage has been done to the nuke sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and the B-2s will be back. Then the Iranian retaliation will follow.

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