Which is Donald Trump's foreign policy priority?

Donald Trump might be the most powerful American president since Ronald Reagan but, despite his overwhelming presence in terms of policy and action in the United States (the Republicans in Congress are in thrall to him), he hasn't managed to achieve a major foreign policy triumph since coming to power on January 20. Ok, the B-2 bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites was heavy stuff and was the boldest of all military statements to the ayatollahs, but Iran's foreign minister is still insisting that his country will continue to pursue nuclear enrichment as one of its main tasks. He admits the bombings caused serious damage but apparently he is confident Iranian scientists and engineers can get back to enrichment in due course. So the Trump bombing hasn't broken Tehran. As for Gaza and Ukraine, the wars are continuing relentlessly and Trump appears to have realised that all those promises before he was elected just cann't be honoured. No one is stopping Benjamin Netanyahu from killing Palestinian civilians and destroying their homes, and Vladimir Putin is ignoring the man in the White House. He carries on doing what he does, whatever Trump says to him. Now you havey to ask what Trump wants to achieve on the foreign stage. Hi initial priority was the war in Ukraine. But that hasn't worked out as he planned, so has Ukraine slipped down the priority list? If so, what is top of his wish list? Not Iran because Trump will feel he has done enough for the moment to make the ayatollahs wary. Trade tariff , of course, are a big number for him, and maybe that's what he wants to focus on more than anything else. When was the last time he rang Netanyahu and told him to stop the war NOW.

What is actually left of Gaza?

Because foreign journalists are banned from entering Gaza to cover the war - apart from a few escorted visits a long time ago - it's impossible to know how much of Gaza is actually left. Is there any building in the whole of the Strip which has not in some form or other been scarred by bombs and bullets or destroyed? The two milion people of Gaza are living as displaced people in tents. The only images we get of the tiny territory show World War 11-type destruction. But there must be some areas which are relatively untouched? Is this possible? Israel is now embarking on a new ground offensive to find Hamas and the remaining hostages which will mean more destruction, and one has to ask, when it's all over, if that ever happens, what on earth is the world going to do about rebuilding Gaza? Will Israel even allow it or will Benjamin Netanyahu decide it's in Israel's interest to keep Gaza as a place of rubble so that Hamas cannot reinvent itself and go back to threatening Israelis. If this is the case, then the population of Gaza, what's left of it, will have to be found new homes. There is already talk of countries offering to take Palestinians from Gaza. Mossad chief David Barnea is supposed to have had discussions with Ethiopia, Indonesia and Libya. Really? Is this honestly the answer? Does anyone ever mention the two-state solution any more? This has clearly died a death. Right now, there is no future for the Palestinian people.

The continuing killing of Palestinians in Gaza has to stop

Almost every day there are grim reports of Palestinians, often in their dozens, being killed in air attacks by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), often, it is claimed, while queuing up for UN food aid. Civilian deaths in war are always tragic, always unacceptable but, sadly, always inevitable. However, the toll of civilian deaths in Gaza, now purported by the Hamas-run health service to total 60,000 (although at least 17,000 of those were Hamas fighters), has reached a level that is way beyond acceptable or proportionate. Added to that, the IDF is bulldozing huge areas of urban living areas, reducing homes to rubble. What is the objective, what is the meaning of this? Can it be any longer justified by the IDF mantra that every Hamas member must be eliminated? The more Hamas members are killed, the more radicalised the people of Gaza will become and the more likely it is that they will be replaced by fanatical jihadists who will join the cause against Israel. Hamas, in other words, will probably keep going because their ranks of survivors will be boosted by jihadist volunteers which means the war will never come to an end. It's the civilian deaths which in the end will force Israel to compromise on its objectives because even Donald Trump, a devout supporter of Israel, will put his foot down. The civilian deaths in Gaza have to stop.

Trump and MAGA unite over "defamatory" Epstein article

In the Donald Trump and MAGA world there's nothing mnore likely to unite them inextricably than an article in a heavyweight newspaper they claim to be false and defamatory. Trump is using The Wall Street Journal for $10 billion over the sensational report yesterday that he sent a letter to the sex trafficker Jeffery Epstein to mark his 50th birthday with a drawing of a naked woman and his signature over a lower party of that sketch. With Trump claiming he never sent the letter and had never drawn a sketch of a naked woman, his supporters in MAGA who had become angry at the president's failure to release everything about the Epstein grand jury investigation, leapt to his defence and turned their attention to the Big Bad Media, their favourite topic. This is likely to go on and on. The Wall Street Journal is sticking by its story and presumably has a copy, fake or otherwise, or the original alleged Trump drawing. Meanwhile he and his loyal supporters are back to their former cosy love-in and hamering away at the newspaper for publishing a "fabricated" letter. One interesting and curious development is that while Trump denies doing drawings - not his style - he has actually done numerous ones in the past, all or mostly all, of tall buildings which he has given to charity to raise funds for different organisations. Good for him but it does raise a tiny question: he appears to have a talent for drawing sketches of buildings along a waterfront, all with his familiar signature written at the bottom. If this libel suit ever gets to court, there will no doubt be a full exchange on Trump's past drawing abilities.

Cover-ups always get found out

Politicians never learn. What really gets to people are cover-ups. We appear to have two going on at the moment: one in the US over the late convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, and here in the UK over the release of personal data about thousands of Afghans who worked for the British in the war in Afghanistan and the names of special forces and MI6 personnel who backed them. The Epstein conspiracy theories, both about his supposed secret client list and his death in a prison cell in 2019 have been running for a long time but have suddenly leapt again into the headlines because the Wall Street Journal has reported that Donald Trump wrote a letter to Epstein on his 50th birthday and included a hand-drawn picture of a naked woman with his partial signature written over it. Trump has said it's a total fabrication and denies ever writing such a letter, let alone drawing a picture of a naked woman. He is suing the paper and, as Trump would say, we'll see what happens next. Also Pam Bondi, the attorney general, has confused everyone by first saying she had an Epstein client list on her desk and then denied having any such thing. So whether it's a cover up or not, it seems like one to most people. So, unless Trump wants this to linger on all summer, total transparency should be the order of the day. Let it all out. Likewise in the UK, this gross leak identifying thousands of potentially vulnerable Afghans and the superinjunction imposed to stop anyone knowing about it should be sorted as quickly as possible. Conservative defence ministers from the last government who were responsible for covering it all up have said they did it to save lives. Prove it.

Syrian leader has toughest job in the world

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Syrian president, must be eligible for the "most difficult job in the world" title, followed closely by Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. The new Syrian leader who did the Syrians and the world a favour by ousting President Bashir al-Assad, has just had his presidential palace bombed by Israel. While it must surely be in Israel's national interest for a new leader in neighbouring Syria to be given a chance to forge stability and peace in his country, Benjamin Netanyahu doesn't like the way the minority Druze people in Syria are being treated, so he sent jet fighters in to bomb a few government targets to get the message across that the Druze (allies of Israel) who live in the southwest and near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights (formerly part of Syria) and in a suburn of Damascus must be protected from discriminatory attacks. Bombing seems to be the answer every time in the Middle East these days. Al-Sharaa has enough trouble on his hands what with the heady mix of Isis, al-Qaeda, numerous other militia groups, Turkish forces, American troops etc etc, all pounding their beat in different parts of the country. Throughout it all, he is trying to rebuild Syria's economy and develop relations with a formerly hostile western world and sort out Vladimir Putin who wants to keep his troops and aircraft in the country which he had been allowed to do under Assad. Bombing by Israel must have been the last straw.

Nightmare human crisis on Iran/Afghanistan border

Apart from the daily slaughter of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, can there be anywhere worse on the planet right now than Afghanistan? More than one million Afghans who have lived in poverty but relative safety in Iran, some for all of their lives, are being kicked out of Iran as illegal immigrants and thrown to the mercy of the Taleban. These Iranian refugees are not wanted in Iran where they have become a source of hatred and persecution and they are not wanted in Afghanistan where the Taleban does not want, nor can afford, to take responsibility for them. Some will temporarily find refuge with relatives but since the majority of Afghanistan's 41 million population are living close to or actual poverty, with no jobs, little food and constant fear, these million or so Afghans from Iran will soon be in desperate straights. Can the world help? Does the world care? The biggest problem for these poor people is that the western world is so relieved to be shot of Afghanistan that they cannot be stirred to launch a massive assistance programme. The Taleban won't allow it and since the Kabul government is not recognised by the vast majority of the planet, there is little incentive to do anything that might benefit the medieval rulers. So these million Afghans have a terrible future ahead of them. Many will die. Men, women and children kicked out of Iran in intense heat only to perish in what is supposed to be their own country of origin.

Trump and "great gentleman" King Charles

There has been such a fuss about Donald Trump's upcoming State Visit to Britain in September. Was he deliberately snubbed when it was made clear he wouldn't be addressing the Houses of Parliament? Obama did. Was it a poke in the nose when President Emmanuel Macron was invited fo a State Visit before him? Was it going to be a nightmare for Charles, having had his own state visit to Canada recently when Trump was earbashing the new leader Mark Carney and telling Canada to become America's 51st state? Judging by a twenty-minute chat with the BBC's Gary O'Donoghue, chief North America correspondent, Trump is all very relaxed about the trip to Britain. He says he doesn't want MPs to give up their holidays to come and listen to him giving a speech during parliamentary recess, and insists all he wants to do is meet up with King Charles whom he describes as a "great gentleman". Not addressing parliament will probably save him from a lot of protesting anti-Trumpers. The last time he came on an officiaL visit to Britain during his first term in office, some idiots flew a huge rubber Trump baby balloon over central London which I thought at the time was unnecessarily disrespectful. I doubt the people of Windsor, where the State Visit will take place, will resort to such rudeness, for the sake of the king.

Trump is back on Ukraine's side

It took a few hiccups and a dressing down in the Oval Office, but Donald Trump is now back on side, pro-Ukraine and pro-arming Ukraine. It has taken six months of prevarication and six months of brutal bombing by Putin. But today Trump announced a new arms deal for Kyiv and a potential sanctions programme against Moscow. No longer a friend of Putin because of the Russian leader's betrayal of the so-called trust between the two, Trump has decided to go all out to help his former sparring partner Volodymyr Zelensky. What a reversal of intentions, what a change in mood on the part of the US president. And it's all because he is angry with Putin for playing him along. Every time they chatted on the phone, Putin talked "nice", as Trump later said. But then off he went and bombed Ukraine to bits. That was like Trump being slapped hard in the face and you don't do that to a man like Trump. So Zelensky is now his new best friend and the dancing with Putin days are over. I wonder if Putin realises he has miscalculated. Having Trump on his side was surely a bonus for him, but now he has screwed up. Bye bye Putin.

Russia to attack Britain in five years?

According to yet another British Army general, we have just five years before an invasion by Russia. The government, he says, should start building nuclear bunkers for everyone. What the hell is wrong with all these generals? Britain is not sitting on its own, vulnerable to a massive Russian attack. We are part of the most successful and powerful defence alliance in history. If Putin is seriously considering attacking Britain, and Britain alone, he will face a counter-strike by the US and the whole alliance. Moscow will be obliterated (a favourite Trump word). This is called deterrence, nuclear deterrence. Does Putin, and this British general, seriously think it would make any sense for Russia to select Britain to be removed from the planet? This is all nonsense and scary stuff, and silly. Russia can't even defeat Ukraine, let alone take on the whole Nato alliance. So, please, all these scaremongering generals, remind youreselves it's all about deterrence and allies. We don't need this poor Labour government of ours to start spending billions on nuclear bunkers everywhere.

9/11 accused conspirators lose plea to stop death sentence

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of 9/11 and three alleged co-conspirators are back where they started. For years they have been fighting to get a legal deal to stop them facing the death sentence. They actually agreed to plead guilty in return for getting a life sentence instead of facing capital punishment. The bargain was approved by a senior figure in the Pentagon but it was abruptly overturned by the then defence secretary, Lloyd Austin. Then his decision was overturned and now the Appeals Court has reinstated the death sentence. All accused have been in Guantanamo Bay detention centre for so long they have probably forgotten how long it has been. It's about 20 years. They live in a twilight world in Guantanamo under conditions of maximum security. They will never be released and now once again they face the death penalty if they ever come to trial. For reasons that are eminently understandable, no one in America cares a jot about them, but it is wholly right that they should be brought to trial and dealt with in a proper way according to the rules of US justice.

Why did Pete Hegseth act without asking Trump first?

In the Trump administration, especially in the Trump administration, surely nothing is done without the president's prior knowledge and say-so? But apparently Pete Hegseth, his often-embattled ex-Fox News defence secretary, went ahead with a decision that was hugely political, and didn't inform the White House. Trump had to admit he knew nothing about it. Extraordinary. The decision was about suspending deliveries of Patriot missiles and other vital weapons to Kyiv to give the Pentagon a chance to do an inventory of arms left in US storage for the US's own use. While that might seem to be practical and sensible, it was, of course, no such thing because suspending arms to Ukraine can have a catastrophic impact in the war-ravaged country and sends all the wrong signals both to Kyiv and to every western ally supporting the Kyiv government against the Russian invaders. In other words, arms to Ukraine is a US administration policy. It's a projection of US power against Moscow. It's a political and diplomatic statement. It's everything. Stopping the arms flow to allow the Pentagon to count their own weapons is like stopping direct debits at your bank because you are not sure you have enough money coming in each month. How could Hegseth have thought he could authorise this Patriot-missile suspension without talking to the White House first, especially at a time when Putin is bombarding Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones on a scale never seen before since the invasion began on February 24, 2022? As soon as Trump realised what had happened he reversed the decision and told Zelensky the next batch of Patriots were on their way. Meanwhile, therre IS a shortage of weaponns in the Pentagon's stocks, especially Patriot missile interceptors, but it's their job to up production on a huge scale. Every country wants Patriots. Hegseth must be treading on such thin ice it's like he better learn to swim.

Trump is getting angry with Putin

The so-called personal relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin has come to nothing. It has born no fruit. It is empty gesture stuff. It's baloney. Why? Because Putin is playing the game. He's not interested in what Trump wants, he only wants what he wants. So every time he picks up the phone to talk to Trump he pretends to offer partnership and hope for a better future, and even maybe an end to the war in Ukraine but as soon as he puts the phone down he rings the ministry of defence and tells his defence minister to blast the hell out of Kyiv. Now Trump is getting frustrated and angry with Putin. He has realised that all his efforts have fallen by the way side because Putin is deaf. In both ears. He can't hear anything unless it sounds like something he thinks is good for him and for his Russian expansion dreams. So Putin answers Trump with more bombings. Which is why Trump has totally reversed a decision made by the Pentagon's policy chief only a short time ago to halt the delivery of Patriot missiles and rocket rounds to Ukraine while he checks out the department's inventory of weapons, fearing the stocks are getting too low. One phone call from Zelensky and Trump scraps that idea and promises more Patriot batteries and missiles to Kyiv to combat the massive increase in missiles and bombs and drones launched from Russia against Ukrainian cities. It's the one US weapon system that really pisses off Putin because he knows it has more capability than any other system to thwart his strikes against Ukraine. So, Trump is angry with Putin, and Putin is no doubt angry with Trump. Thus the Beautiful, Big Friendship has come to an end.

State visit for French president who does nothing to stop migrants boating across the Channel

Thousands and thousands of migrants from across the world climb into small rubber dingies on the beaches of Calais, goaded on by criminal smugglers and generally watched by inactive French police officers, and try to make the perilous Channel crossing to Britain. It has been going on for years, large numbers have drowned, but still they come, especially when the weather is clement. They pack into the boats in their dozens, with no room to move. Still, the Gendarmerie just watch. Occasionally they take action, like last week when they saw a boat was so top-heavy they feared all would probably drown mid-Channel and a police officer stepped forward with a knife and slashed the rubber hull and it sank in shallow waters. The migrants stepped out and retreated across the beach. But this was just one occasion. Mostly, the boats leave the Calais beaches and no one stops them. The rubber boat that was slashed with a knife was almost exclusively packed with young, fit-looking men, with a few women to make up the numbers. So it wasn't a boatload of starving women and children from Sudan, or petrified-looking children from war zones. These were hearty young men who no doubt returned the next day and climbed into another boat. So, as President Emmanuel Macron enjoys the hospitality of the king and queen and the British people and travels around in a golden coach and walks on red carpets, perhaps he might reflect that it's time after all the promises actually to stop these boats from leaving the French shores. Will it happen? I doubt it.

Gaza is a place of total anarchy

It's impossible to know the full extent of what life is like in Gaza because Israel doesn't allow journalists to cover the war from inside the territorial strip of land. There are plenty of reports appearing in the world's press and television and radio based on brave Palestinian, Gaza-resident journalists. But the war needs to be covered by outsiders, journalists who have war-correspondent exsperience and can give us a complete picture. There is a brilliant piece on the BBC World website today which gives an alarming account of life inside Gaza, provided by a former Hamas security officer who now lives in Cairo. So he's not there in Gaza but one assumes he has all the right contacts. He says there is anarchy in the Strip with gangs and groups rivalling Hamas who are trying to overthrow the so-called "rulers" of Gaza. He says Hamas has lost control of Gaza and its leadership annihilated and that there are different political groups, no doubt financed by Israel, who are pulling together to get rid of Hamas. While that might sound like a solution for Israel, it surely means even more danger for the Palestinian residents. There are, the former Hamas official says, armed groups who are trying to take over who stop people at a whim. So there is war and anarchy and rebellion. How is it possible for Palestinian citizens to survive in this appalling and terrifying environment? Is the world caring enough? No.

Israel and Hamas talk but to brick walls

When it was announced that Israel and Hamas would talk about a ceasefire, it might have seemed a positive development. But the two sides in the ghastly war in Gaza are so far apart that I doubt a ceasefire of any kind will hold for more than a day or so. Hamas demands an end to the war and the withdrawal of all Israel Defence Forces troops, and that's not going to happen, not according to Benjamin Netanyahu. And, understandably, Netanyahu wants all remaining hostages, dead and alive, to be released and returned to their families, and that's not going to happen unless the IDF gets out of Gaza. Voila! A vicious circle. We might get a couple of hostages released with something offered by Israel. But a long-term ceasefire? An end to the war? Still, I fear, a long way to go.

Ukraine needs Patriots

Ukraine has survived more than three years of Vladimir Putin’s war because of massive western arms supplies, an appreciation and exploitation of Russian military weaknesses, audacious special forces missions and an extraordinarily successful development of home-grown drones. All these ingredients have helped Kyiv hold off the Russian forces, saved Volodymyr Zelensky from early capitulation and prevented Putin from marching further into Europe. An achievement by any standards of modern warfare. However, the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine, a very tenuous concept over the last three years as Putin turned to hypersonic weaponry to strike at Ukrainian cities, depended on the continuous arms flow from the US and Europe, particularly from the Pentagon. Now, the hierarchy at the Pentagon has decided that the weapons stocks held for the US armed forces have been reduced to such a dangerous level as a result of the generous handover of weapons to the Kyiv government, that key systems are being withheld to give the American defence department a chance to recoup its arsenals to ensure full readiness for war whenever and wherever it may occur. While the checking of inventories is a vital responsibility for the Pentagon chiefs, the decision to suspend some of the weapons’ deliveries to Ukraine couldn’t have happened at a worst time. Russia has amassed 50,000 troops along Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast in the north, and overnight on Sunday Moscow launched 477 drones and 60 missiles, targeting seven Ukrainian towns and cities, in the largest Russian attack of the war so far. In Ukraine the most desirable and most in-demand weapon to protect the country from Russian air attacks is the US Patriot missile system. Ukraine has about eight batteries of Patriots, each of which can consist of between six and eight launchers with stocks of PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors. Zelensky has appealed for a total of 25 Patriot launchers to provide an integrated air defence system for Ukraine. Patriot, more than any other air defence system, has shot down hundreds if not thousands, of Russian drones and missiles, preventing mass destruction in the country’s major towns. However, after a thorough weapons count in US arms stocks, the Pentagon has now reportedly halted deliveries of PAC-3 interceptors to Kyiv, along with munitions fired by the US Army’s High Mobility Rocket System (HIMARS) and the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), as well as 155mm artillery rounds, portable Stinger anti-airweapons and Hellfire anti-tank missiles. The decision to suspend deliveries of these vital weapons was made after an investigation of US munition stockpiles ordered by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s powerful policy chief. There have been concerns ever since the war in Ukraine began and the Biden administration started sending US weapons to Ukraine to defend against the Russian invaders, that American armed forces’ munitions stocks could run low. These concerns have intensified since Donald Trump came to power, especially after the US involvement in attacks on Iran and the perceived growing threat from Beijing to use military force to seize Taiwan by 2027. “This decision [to halt some weapons for Ukraine] was made to put America’s interests first,” Anna Kelly, deputy White House press secretary, said., adding, with potential adversaries in mind: “The strength of the United States armed forces remains unquestioned – just ask Iran.” The America First justification for the suspension of key weapons for Ukraine will have come as no surprise to America’s allies in Europe, although every attempt has been made recently to woo the US president to persuade him to maintain military support for Kyiv as part of an alliance-wide effort to stop Putin’s aggression. The wooing of Trump was epitomised by the extraordinary comment made by Mark Rutte, Nato secretary-general, when he referred to the president as the “daddy” trying to intervene between two spoilt children, a reference to the breaches of the ceasefire announced by Trump between Iran and Israel after twelve days of attacks. Europe, as well as Ukraine, depend on the good will and superpower support of the United States, and the announcement of the suspension to Kyiv of key equipment, especially the Patriots, will have rocked the alliance. The Patriot missile system has become the de riguer weapon. Everyone wants it. Ukraine is on a long list of customers and has had to compete with Israel, among others, for the fastest deliveries. The largest single Patriot engagement in US military history took place in Qatar last month when Iran launched a barrage of missiles at the US base at al-Udeid in Qatar. All were shot down. Any shortages of Patriot interceptors in the Ukrainian armoury will increase the risk of death and destruction in the country’s towns and cities, as Putin continues to launch missile strikes on civilian areas.

Trump and Putin talk Ukraine but no breakthrough

Vladimir Putin I would say is settling in for a long war in Ukraine. For the Ukrainians, it is already a long war, more than three years. But for Putin, he has a lot more he wants to do. In fact he still hopes I am sure to force the Kyiv government into capitulation. So when Donald Trump rings and they have a long chat about Ukraine and other things, the Russian leader doesn't seem remotely interested in talking about, let alone considering, agreeing to a ceasefire. Trump came away from his latest phone chat with Putin saying nothing had been achieved. At least they are still talking to each other but Putin has the upper hand. He knows Trump is desperate to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, to add to his list of "triumphs", following the B-2 bombings of Iran's nuclear plants. He gave Trump nothing. It didn't help Trump's case that the Pentagon had ordered a suspension of key weapons to Ukraine in order to build America's own stocks for a future war. That would have brought a smile to Putin's face. And when Putin smiles, you know he is feeling on top of the world, well his world, and has better cards than his friend, Trump.

Trump's unpredictability is his strongest card

Being unpredictable as the leader of the United States of America isn't necessarily a bad thing in terms of America's biggest adversaries. Keep them - ie Russia, China, Iran and North Korea - on their toes, not knowing from one day to another what Donald Trump might decide to do. But it must be intensely annoying for America's allies who, above all, want to know they can trust the US to give its backing in a security crisis. In the latest case, the US has suddenly announced it is suspending some key arms to Ukraine to make sure it has enough weaponry in its own stocks. Zelensky has been pleading for weeks that the arms from the West have to keep on being delivered or else his country's towns and cities will suffer. But the truth is, Europe as well as the US, has the same problem. So much has been handed over to Kyiv in the last three yers to help the Ukrainian military defend against Russian invasion forces that stocks everywhere will be running short. The war in Ukraine needs to come to an end to allow Europe and the US to restock. It will be in Putin's interest of course for the war to carry on. He will be pleased by the announcement from the Pentagon that deliveries of Patriot missiles, vital for air defence over Ukranian cities, is being suspended. But Trump being the unpredictable president he is, may have something up his sleeve to surprise Putin. One can only hope so.

Does Iran have any other option but surrender?

Iran retaliated massively against Israel after the first Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites last month. Many of the ballistic missiles got through and killed Israeli civilians and damaged property. So, unlike the first retaliation against Israeli raids in April when Tehran launched a fairly modest retaliatory strike and achieved very little, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this time round might feel satisfied that his military dealt a significant blow to Israel. Nevertheless, the overall result of the twelve days of war and then the intervention of Donald Trump and the B-2 Spirit bombers is that Iran has been hugely weakened, its nuclear programme has been set back potentially by years, its stockpile of ballistic missile launchers have been partially destroyed and its air defence systems have been ravaged. Iran, therefore, has nothing to show for its strike back against Israel, and as for its retaliation against the US for the B-2 bombers, no one died and every missile aimed at the American al-Udeid base in Qatar was intercepted. All the ayatollahs have got as a bargaining chip is the relative mystery of whether they have managed to hide away the 400 kilos of 60-per cent-enriched uranium and whether they have an unharmed inventory of gas centrifuges also concealed somewhere. TRhey could play on that if there are going to be negotiations between Iran the US. But, basically, Iran is in a pretty poor state to negotiate anything and if the regime refuses to cooperate, then Israel and possibly the US will return with more bombs and missiles.

Will Trump bomb again?

President Trump has already warned Tehran that he’ll be back if Iran tries to revive and advance its nuclear programme, following the strikes by B-2 stealth bombers.Judging by the comments of the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Trump may find himself with this dilemma sooner than he thinks. Iran could return to enriching uranium in “a matter of months”, according to Rafael Mariano Grossi, IAEA’s director-general, in an interview with CBS News at the weekend. However, a number of questions need to be asked before the B-2s take off again from their Whiteman Air Force base in Missouri.Trump hopes that the combination of twelve days of Israeli air raids and the one-off attack by seven B-2s each armed with 30,000lb Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) will persuade the Tehran regime to give up any ambitions of building a bomb and focus all efforts on a long-term diplomatic deal to bring the nuclear nightmare to an end. The chances are slim. The survival of the Islamic Republic under the leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei largely depends on its often-stated position which is that Iran has the right to enrich uranium and it will never give that up, however many “western” bombs fall. The IAEA chief clearly believes that, despite serious damage to the three main nuclear sites, Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, Iran still has sufficient stocks of unharmed gas centrifuges secreted away to continue the process of enriching its stock of 400 kilos of 60-percent-grade uranium, potentially to reach the 90 per cent level required for a bomb. Grossi’s assessment, unfavourably, for Trump that is, echoes the sombre report leaked from the Pentagon’s Defence Intelligence Agency soon after the B-2 bombing of the three nuclear sites which claimed the strikes had only set back Iran’s nuclear programme by a few months. There are important nuances here. There can be little doubt that the 14 MOPs dropped through ventilation shafts to reach a long way down towards the deeply buried nuclear plants caused a lot more damage than the DIA seemed to be implying. Furthermore, and crucially, the bombings did destroy (or obliterate in Trumps’ language) the metal conversion facility at Isfahan whose role was to transform enriched uranium gas into dense metal, a process known as metallization, which is one of the key last stages of forging the explosive core of a bomb. CIA director John Ratcliffe reportedly told a classified congressional hearing that the destruction of the sole metal-conversion plant would put back Iran’s suspected nuclear bomb programme by years. So, whether the 400 kilos of highly-enriched uranium Iran developed are buried under rubble at Isfahan or one of the other sites, or have been removed to an unknown bunker (depending on which report you believe), the destruction of the metal-conversion plant is a plus for Trump’s obliteration mantra; and possibly a reason for the US president to hold back the B-2s for a second go for the moment. That’s not to say he won’t be tempted to launch another bombing raid if Tehran refuses to cooperate on the offered diplomatic path. Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, told the BBC that the US would have to rule out any further strikes if diplomatic negotiations were to be resumed. Trump isn’t going to fall for that one. Trump knows that he won’t face any trouble from Congress if he decides to bomb again. Attempts by the Democrats to obligate the president to seek authority from Congress before pursuing more attacks on Iran were thwarted by the Republican-majority Senate in a 53-47 vote. The other big question of course is Israel. Mossad and the rest of the Israeli intelligence apparatus will be keeping the closest eye and ear on what Iran does next after seeing its prized nuclear facilities hammered by nearly two weeks of targeted strikes. Last week, Israel Katz, the Israeli defence minister, ordered the military to draw up an “enforcement plan” against Iran, including maintaining air superiority over the country and taking whatever steps are necessary to prevent progress in Tehran’s nuclear programme. “Operation Rising Lion [codename for the Israel Defence Forces’ twelve days of attacks] was just the preview of a new Israeli policy,” Katz wrote on X. So, Operation Rising Lion has been granted longevity. That has to mean further attacks on nuclear sites and against nuclear scientists in the future, whether Trump and the B-2s are going to be involved or not.

Iran is now the most-watched country on the planet

Whatever happens in and to Iran in the next six months, every move the ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guard make that looks like they are trying to revive their damaged nuclear programme and advance towards 90-per-cent enriched uranium for a bomb will be watched and eavesdropped on by both Israel and the United States. Nothing they do will go unnoticed. Mossad agents who have penetrated the Iranian regime for years will be sending back intelligence reports to make sure Tehran's intentions are going to be assessed in the finest detail. There will be no escape for Tehran's nuclear scientists. Many of them have been assassinated already. Others will no doubt be wondering every day they awake whether Mossad will be waiting for them. How diplomacy can succeed when there is this sort of pressure on the regime is difficult to fathom. But both the US and Israel must be hoping that the tension will increase to such a level that the regime itself will fall or be toppled. But one should feel pity for the younger generation in Iran who are probably desperate to lead a decent more western-style life, free of repression by the ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guard but who will be too scared to protest at the state of their lives.

Kim Jong Un must be laughing his head off

The 41-year-old Supreme Dictator of North Korea must be grinning and slapping his thighs in enjoyment. He's sorry for Iran, of course, for the Israeli and US attacks on the three nuclear sites, but Kim Jong Un is sitting pretty with his nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles(ICBMs) and his plutonium-producing reactors and thinking to himself: "There's no way anyone, including and especially the United States even under Donald Trump, is going to do the same to me and my stockpile of nukes. I'm a winner." And he's right, he has somehow managed to develop nuclear warheads, carry out nuclear tests when all other nuclear nations had stopped doing them, launched ICBM tests over Japan and has got away with it. No one has done anything to stop him. And now it's all too late. There is absolutely no way Kim Jong Un is ever going to give up his nukes. He has built himself a super-deterrence to stop anyone attacking North Korea (not that anyone wanted to) and he knows he can actually threaten almost every city in the United States with a nuclear-armed ICBM. Iran could never do that and won't ever be able to do that. North Korea has won every battle, diplomatic, political and military (by deterrence). With all the fuss about the "successful" strikes on Iran's nukes, hardly anyone dares mention North Korea and why the Little Dictator was able to build his nuclear bombs with impunity. The sanctions have made no difference. He just exports and imports clandestinely. There are always countries who will trade with anyone when they need to. China backs him. Putin backs him. Kim Jong Un is laughing all the way to the nuclear bunker.

The US it seems can't avoid wars

Coming into office and saying there will be no more for-ever wars is a perfectly respectable platform but if you are the president of the United States, avoiding wars seems to be an impossible objective. That's one of the lessons learnt by Donald Trump. Ok, the attack on Iranian nuke sites doesn't signify a for-ever war. But I doubt the attacks over last weekend will be the last. Iran will always pose a threat, nuclear or otherwise, so in some senses the confrontation between the US and Iran is for ever. Then there's the Putin issue, what might he do after Ukraine? If he marches towards a Nato country (which I doubt he'd be foolish to contemplate), then Trump could find himself involved in a much bigger war. And there's China and Taiwan. If Beijing invades Taiwan, will Trump send in the carriers? So, the lesson is, however much you want to be a peacemaker and not get the US further involved in wars of any kind, the US is and has always to be a global force because it is a military and economic superpower. So, I fear the attacks on Iran will definitely not be the last time the US has to go to war under this administration or any future administration.

So much confusion over the US bombing of Iran

Who is right about the US bombing of Iran nuke plants? The leaking of the initial assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) of the US bombing in Iran last week sent all the wrong messages around Washington. President Donald Trump had declared the bombings by B-2 stealth bombers had “obliterated” Iran’s three main nuclear sites. But the leaked DIA report rejected the president’s triumphant announcement. It dealt a political blow to the president and provoked a huge debate about whether the bombings had achieved the objective which was to destroy Iran’s ability to develop and build a nuclear bomb. Whether the leaker acted deliberately to undermine the president’s case is not yet clear. But the reality is that the DIA assessment was far too premature to give the true picture of what level of destruction those bombs achieved. Every expert in this field has said that it takes weeks for a proper assessment to be made; and it’s not just a question of looking at satellite images. A full assessment has to take into account a whole range of other sources – for example, on-the -ground human intelligence and electronic eavesdropping of Iranian government communications. Even then, it won’t be possible to be absolutely sure of the damage unless international inspectors are allowed down to the underground bunkers and see for themselves. The Iranian regime has, meanwhile, acknowledged that the nuclear sites have been damaged. The problem for the Trump administration is that the leak of the DIA assessment has created doubt, and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei exploited that confusion by claiming the US had failed to destroy the country’s nuclear programme. The media has played a significant part in fomenting doubt about the bomb attacks, but that was inevitable and unavoidable after CNN first received the leaked DIA report. The report was a genuine document and the media seized on it. To try and downgrade the DIA assessment, Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, and General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave an incredibly detailed account of the bombings by seven B-2 stealth bombers which painted a very different picture. It appeared to be an immaculately well-planned operation, with twelve of the Pentagon’s heaviest and largest bombs dropped one after the other through a ventilation shaft at the main underground site at Fordo, south of Tehran. Assuming they all detonated, that must have caused immense damage to the facilities more than 2,000ft feet below. If that turns out to be the case, then the DIA report was basically not just premature but wrong. No wonder the FBI has been called in to investigate who leaked the document. The lesson learned from last week is that in this crazy social media world, everything becomes political. What was intended to be a triumph for Trump and for the Pentagon turned into a political battle, with the media and Trump critics seizing on the DIA assessment to cast doubt on the US military’s ability to damage, let alone, obliterate Iran’s nuclear sites.

Iran's Supreme Leader claims victory over America!!

It's extraordinary how one man's victory is another man's defeat or the other way around. Seven US B-2 Spirit strategic bombers armed with 14 30,000lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs flew into Iran with ease and total immunity and bombed three of their nuclear plants and flew home again unscathed, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, emerges from his own secret bunker and pronounces victory over the Americans. Perhaps he hasn't had time to speak to his intelligence people or go on a trip to Fordo, Natanz or Isfahan, the three attacked sites. But to declare victory would seem to be somewhat bizarre. Ok, the Iranians were obviously smart because it looks like they removed the 400 kilos of 60 per cent-enriched uranium, plus some key enrichment equipment before the B-2s arrived. But their programme to build a bomb which the ayatollah still denies, has clearly been set back by a considerable time whatever the different US intelligence agancies are saying. Obviously Khamenei feels he has to rouse his people to support him against the US but will the average Iranian actually believe their master when he declares victory? The reality is that if he and his regime try to restart their clandestine bombmaking programme, the Israeli air force will be back, and probably the B-2s as well, although the US will have to get on fast with producing more Massive Ordnance Penetrators, having used up possibly more than half of the existing stock. Judging by Khamenei's statement today, Iran will always remain a threat while he is in charge.

Was Iran's uranium-enrichment plant "obliterated"?

Donald Trump chose the word "obliterated" when he announced the successful hits by 30,000lb bombs onto Iran's nuclear facility underground at Fordo. Ever since there have been doubts cast on how much damage was actually done. The US Defence Intelligence Agency which I guuess will now be abolished, reported (and it was leaked of course) that only enough damage was done to put back Iran's nuke programme by a few months. Trump is furious and has stuck to his favourite adjective, "obliterated". I hope for the sake of the world that Trump is right and the DIA is wrong or at least premature with its assessment. But if the DIA turns out to be right, then it means the dropping of FOURTEEN Massive Ordnance Penetraors(MOPs) by seven B-2 staelth bombers didn't do the trick after all. To be honest, there was always doubt about whether these mighty bombs could actually reach the parts that had to be reached, way way down under a mountain. Anyway, Iran smartly removed key equipment as well as the 400 kilos of 60 per cent-enriched uranium from Fordo and from Natanz, another nuke facility hit by MOPs. General Dan Caine, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that battle-damage assessment still has to be completed. But Trump has made up his mmind that the Iranian sites have been obliterated. So someone must have told him that this was the case, or was that someone too scared to tell him the truth. Even Marco Rubio, the secretary of state who has been totally loyal to his master so far, has suggested the bombing caused severe damage but didn't use the word "obliterated". The battle-damage assessment is going to be pretty tricky if it's seen through the eyes of spy satellites because the images, while showing big craters in the mountain, don't show us the inside of the plants down below. This is not going to be resolved one way or the other in a matter of days but it certainly hasn't helped Trump's case that someone inside the DIA leaked the initial findings to the media. But then this is what always happens in the US.

Trump curses Israel and Iran for violating his ceasefire

The overnight announcement by Donald Trump of an agreement by both Israel and Iran to stop attacking each other was a rabbit-out-of-the-hat surprise. It didn't last long, but then Trump with some choice expletives told Israel to turn its bombers back and Tehran to stop firing missiles. When both sides are so fired up, perhaps it's to be expected that a few wild shots will be launched as the tempo starts to fall. Trump's intention was to fly off from Washington to The Hague in The Netherlands for the two-day Nato summit with peace in his pocket. As he boarded Air Force One he must have been looking forward to the cries of praise and congratulations from alliance leaders. But all will depend on whether the ceasefire holds. I would have thought Israel feels it still has much to do to stop the nuclear threat from Iran. Fordow, the deeply buried uranium-enrichment facility, is not "obliterated" as Trump claimed. It's badly damaged but could Tehran in the future rebuild it and get back to enriching uranium, this time to weapons-grade, 90 per cent, level? They have removed the 400 kilos of 60 per cent enriched-uranium in steel caskets to a secret site and nobody seems to know where it is. No doubt Mossad will find it and then we'll see what happens, as Trump likes to say. While Trump is distracted in The Hague, I fear Israel and Iran will continue to breach the "deal", each accusing the other of being the first to do so.

How can Trump keep it a short war with Iran?

The length and scale of the American confrontation with Iran will depend on two things: how much destruction was actually caused by the 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators dropped by the seven B-2 Sprit bombers on the nuclear sites at Fordow and Natanz, and by the US Navy submarine Tomahawks on Isfahan; and how Iran retaliates to the bombings. If, after battle-damage assessments have been completed, it's discovered that much of Fordow still survives and Natanz, too, Trump will have little alternative but to send the bombers back for another round of MOP strikes, although the inventory of these mighty bombs is limited. Likewise, if Iran launches attacks on American troops based in the Middle East or tries to close the Strait of Hormuz entrance into the Gulf waterway with mines, then Trump will have to do what he said he would do which is to strike back at multiple targets in Iran. Either way, the result will be a more prolonged battle with Iran, something which neither his political supporters at home nor the American people want. Iran will no doubt feel that it has to respond to the B-2 strikes but Tehran knows that if it goes big, the US response will be huge. Can they take that risk? And if they block the Strait of Hormuz, stopping all shipping, much of it carrying oil around the world, the repercusions will be enormous economically and Iran will face significant American military action. Also, blocking the narrow channel into the Gulf waterway will hurt Iran's economy because oil from Iran bound for China goes through the waterway. Not that long ago, Iran might have been able to rely on Hezbollah or Hamas to carry out retaliatory attacks on the Americans, but each of these organisations have been devastated by Israeli attacks over the last 20 months. Iran's proxy forces are no longer capable of launching major attacks on the Americans. My feeling is that the US battle-damage assessment carried out by the Pentagon will show that insufficient damage has been done to the nuke sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and the B-2s will be back. Then the Iranian retaliation will follow.

The US attacks Iran's nuke sites!

Donald Trump has done it and he didn't wait two weeks. It was obvious Iran wasn't goinbg to play ball. Tehran wasn't going to budge on new nuke talks unless Israel stopping bombing. Trump was never going to agree to that, let alone Benjamin Netanyahu. So Trump called his national security team for a meeting last night and he gave the go ahead to bomb in the early hours. The six B-2 Spirit bombers assigned for the bombing run and a collection of air-to-air refuelling tankers were all set to go. Instead of going to the base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, the B-2s flew off from their Whiteman Air Force base in Missouri for the long-haul flight to Iran. This was the better option because it guaranteed more surprise. Six B-2s each armed with two Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, 30,000lb in weight and with devastating explosive power, were dropped on the main uranium-enrichment bunker at Fordo, 100 miles spouth of Tehran and, according to Trump, it was obliterated. The only way it could have been put totally out of action would have been if the B-2s followed in a line and dropped the 12 MOPs one after the other into the same hole created by the first one. Twelve MOPs falling through the same hole wold have reached the floor of the bunker and devastated the whole place. Assuming that's what happened, it was a simple but unprecedented-in-history attack on a single underground installation by conventional bombs. Two other nuke sites at Isfahan and Natanz were hit by dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles fired fromn US submarines. All the talk of diplomacy and deescalation urged by everyone except Israel was also obliterated. But, despite all the appeals and concerns and fears and criticism emanating from around the world, it is just possible that the US, along with Israel of course, has saved the world from facing a nuclear-armed Iran, a nightmare for the whole globe. As the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the other day when referring to Israel's action, Israel was doing the dirty work for everyone. Now Trump has also done the dirty work for the planet. Let us hope that's an end to it and Iran realises there is nothing it can do against the might of the US without huge retaliation. They can try with attacks on US forces and embassies in the region. But if they do that, Trump will just bomb more sites until Iran is thrown back into the 14th century. Ultimately, all countries, especially in the Middle East, will be grateful.

Will two weeks bring the result Trump wants?

Donald Trump likes putting things off for two weeks. He has done it before. The thinking is that it builds up pressure on "the enemy", whoever that is, and forces them to plead for a deal. But will it work this time? With Israel continuing every day and night dropping bombs and firing missiles at Iran, there will be no let-up for the Tehran regime. But throughout the next two weeks, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will know that Trump is waiting for him to crumble and give in. As the days tick by, that pressure is going to get bigger and bigger. It doesn't matter what the Europeans and Canada do to try and forge some diplomatic deal. This is all about Trump versus Khamenei. The die has been cast and the Iranian leader will be the one who blinks, not Trump. I think that if by the time the two weeks have passed and Tehran has refused to budge, Trump will order the US military to finish the job the Israelis have started. Khamenei must know that. So it's all up to him. His whole purpose in life is to make sure he and the Islamic Republic under his leadership survive. And it may not survive if the US enters the war. So, to avoid regime change, the ayatollah will seek a deal. That's my prediction. However, there is a big extra ingredient here. How will the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps react if the Supreme Leader caves in? It could cause a revolution of a different kind, not the demise of the Islamic Republic but a take-over by the IRGC, the military taking even more control than they do today. Trump would hope that US bombing of Iran's nuke plants will lead to an uprising in the country with democracry shining through. That outcome would seem unrealistic even if the Supreme Leader is toppled.

Trump's big decision time

The danger with having a weapon system that was specifically developed to destroy deeply-buried military/nuclear bunkers is that if they don't do the job properly, there will be a huge anti-climax. Donald Trump, by all accounts, is worried that the Pentagon's Massive Ordnance Penetrator, 30,000lbs in weight and supposedly capable of breaching 200ft of concrete, won't actually reach Iran's most secret uranium-enrichment plant at Fordow south of Tehran which is half a mile down. Will the detonation from the MOP spread down far enough to destroy the plant? The reality is that the US might have to drop four or five of the $3 million MOPs, each one going down through the hole achieved by the previous one. Then it might be possible for the MOPs to get their targets. It's a big IF. Trump won't want to drop the bombs and discover that Iran's fuel-enrichment facility is untouched. That would be seriously embarrassing and make the whole effort look unachievable. That would be a huge bonus to Iran. Wars are rarely, if ever, won by airstrikes alone. Can the MOP do what other bombs in the past have failed to do - bring Iran to its knees and force it to give up all idea of building a nuclear bomb? Trump must be hoping so but it's why he has so far hesitated to give the go ahead for an American strike.

US involvement in Israel war with Iran inevitable

There are really only two options facing Donald Trump: either saying no to joining Israel in attacking Iran or start bombing. The only other possible option, but now seemingly vanishing fast, is to try one last diplomatic push as the bombs keep falling on Tehran. But Trump is a realist. He must know that diplomacy is now off the table because Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is resolved to fight Israel all the way. So the war option is really the only answer which is tragic but practical. I don't believe Trump will hold back now that the Israeli air force has cleared the way for a bombing run on the nuclear plants with America's Massive Ordnance Penetrator. But what will Russia do if Trump gives the go ahead? Russia and Iran are strategic partners. Iran is providing crucial armed drones to Russia for attacking Ukraine. Putin will feel obliged to support Iran. What will that mean? And China is not going to stay quiet. If China comes out on the side of Iran, this could turn out to be a mighty confrontation between the three big power rivals. All of this will have to be taken into account when Trump makes his final decision. The B-2s with a payload of Massive Ordnance Penetrators are waiting for the go.

Only the US has the weapon to destroy Iran's nuke bunkers

There is only one weapon system, apart from nuclear warheads, that could destroy Iran’s underground stock of highly enriched uranium and nuclear bomb components. The United States has it, and Israel does not. The Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), which is 6m-long, weighs 30,000lb and has never been fired in anger, was developed to destroy bunkers that other weapons could not reach. Technically identified as the GBU-57F/B, it is approved as an operational payload to be launched only by the strategic B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, although tests have also been carried out with B-52s. President Trump has not joined Israel in taking military action against Iran, but there has been a build-up of warships, carriers and fighter aircraft in the Middle East, ready to carry out strikes. The clearest sign that Trump had decided to join Israel in trying to eliminate the threat of Iran developing nuclear bombs would be the arrival of B-2s at the British-owned Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. Six B-2s were sent there in April as a show of force to Tehran, although in the end they were involved in missions against Houthi targets in Yemen. No MOPs were deployed or used. Even this huge bunker-busting bomb would face a challenge to reach Iran’s deepest clandestine nuclear facilities, at least some of which are known to be about half a mile — or about 800m — down, beneath layers of reinforced concrete. The latest version of the MOP has been fitted with a smart fuse that delays detonation until the maximum penetration has been achieved, reported to be more than 60m of concrete. The explosion would have a chance of destroying what was beneath it. By comparison, Israel has GBU-28 bunker busters, which can penetrate only 6m of concrete. It has not been supplied with the MOP; the US air force is believed to have limited supplies, perhaps no more than 20. In preparation for a potential US strike against Iran, Trump has already approved the dispatch of a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East. The USS Carl Vinson battle group will soon be operating alongside the USS Nimitz with accompanying warships in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, after the Nimitz was redeployed from the South China Sea. The Carl Vinson has F-35C Lightning II stealth fighters on board. In its Operation Rising Lion, Israeli F-35s have succeeded in carving a relatively invulnerable aerial pathway towards Iran’s four nuclear facilities by targeting the country’s air defence systems with multiple raids. That same pathway could be used by the B-2 or other US aircraft to hit the plants suspected of developing Iranian nuclear warheads.

Netanyahu waited for the right president to come along

Donald Trump likes to see himself as the Great Negotiator but on this occasion Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, appeared to have all the cards and outplayed him. Since April, the Israeli leader had been pressurising Trump and his White House aides to give him the green light for a large-scale attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. While Netanyahu was reassured by his military advisers that Israel could go it alone to target Iran’s four nuclear sites, he wanted not just US backing but also American firepower to achieve what Trump and his predecessors all agreed on: that Iran must never be allowed to build a nuclear bomb. However, Trump entered the White House for his second term on a no-war ticket. He announced his intention to bring the war in Ukraine to an end and sent his special envoy and billionaire friend Steve Witkoff to pave the way and to divide up his spare time to sort out the war in Gaza, too. Neither of these objectives have yet to bear fruit. The nuclear challenge presented by Iran was also high on Trump’s list. But he made it clear his priority was to be a peacemaker. He wanted to avoid conflagration. This was a message that clearly didn’t go down well with Netanyahu who apparently told every American official who came to Jerusalem and in every phone call to the White House that this was the moment, the unique moment, when Iran’s nuclear sites could be bombed before it was too late. Netanyahu and his complex operational plan to attack Iran, codenamed Operation Rising Lion, which had taken months, if not years, to develop and hone, was ready to launch two months ago. But Trump demurred. He wanted Witkoff to keep going with diplomatic efforts. He made his case to Netanyahu earlier this week when he said he wanted Witkoff to complete his round of negotiations with the Iranians in Oman. One more meeting to give peace a chance had been set for Sunday. However, Trump was becoming increasingly aware that his appeals were falling on deaf ears. Operation Rising Lion was as good as set in stone. Mossad agents who had covertly entered Iran were in position to launch deadly drone attacks on the homes of the top hierarchy of Iranian generals and nuclear scientists. The call between Trump and Netanyahu on Thursday was, by the sound of it, a one-way declaration by the Israeli prime minister. Israel was going to bomb Iran, and he hoped Trump would not stand in his way. Trump came away from that conversation, knowing that within hours 200 Israeli jet fighters and bombers would be hitting pre-selected targets in Iran. It was a fait accompli. There was nothing Trump could have done. He had been out-negotiated. In one way, it was his fault, He had set a timetable of 60 days for Iran to reach a diplomatic deal to resolve the nuclear crisis. Thursday was the last day of Trump’s own timeline. It was a gift for Netanyahu. All he had to do was remind Trump of his own deadline and then push the button for Operation Rising Lion. There has been no transcript of the Thursday phone call. But Marco Rubio, secretary of state and acting national security adviser, confirmed that Washington had been notified of the imminent attack on Iran. After the attack began, a further statement was made which emphasised that the US played no role in the strikes. The challenge for Trump now is whether the US should switch from this non-participant position to being a full player. Only the US possesses the type of weapon system capable of penetrating the concrete and reinforced steel to reach the underground facilities where Iran carries out its most sensitive and critical nuclear research and development programmes. Even the US Air Force’s 30,000lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) dropped by B-2 stealth bombers would have difficulty detonating close enough to these facilities, some of which are half a mile down. However, MOP would have a better chance of actually reaching Tehran’s most secret underground plants. So far, Israel has caused extensive damage but largely to surface laboratory facilities., as well as Iran’s air defence systems. The greatest achievement of Operation Rising Lion so far has been the killing by Mossad of so many high-powered generals and nuclear scientists. That alone will set back Iran’s nuclear programme. The question for Trump is whether he has the appetite for taking on Iran once and for all. At present he has adopted a different line: warning Tehran to grab the diplomatic route before facing annihilation. However, if Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader, refuses to send his diplomats to meet with Witkoff in Oman and focuses only on military retaliation against Israel, Trump might find himself forced to do what Netanyahu has been urging on Washington for a long time: to join with Israel in totally destroying Iran’s nuclear programme. If that is what happens, Netanyahu will have achieved his greatest legacy: picking his moment and the right American president to end the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Israel and Iran set for long missile-attrition war

Is anyone actually trying to stop Israel and Iran from hurling missiles and drones at each other? This could go on for weeks or months and the death and destruction toll is going to climb steeply. There is a purpose to this war which is to stop Iran going nuclear. It's a purpose which every other country in the world is going to be grateful for, provided it succeeds and everything to do with Iran's clandestine nuclear bomb project is destroyed or long-term damaged. So, secretly, every country, including Britain under Keir Starmer who has been increasingly critical of Israel, will be saying:"Go, Israel, get it done." But Israel won't be able to destroy Iran's deeply buried nuclear facilities without a lot of help from the US, along with the full support of Britain, Europe and the whole Arab world. Will this happen? No. For uhderstandable reasons, all the focus right now is to try and stop the war. Britain and everyone else are calling for restraint. But the truth is, if Israel uses restraint it won't be able to finish the job of preventing Iran from going nuclear. If no one else is going to help, ie the US, then Israel must be allowed to go it alone and end Ira's nuclear dreams. But that means Israel and the Israeli people will have to suffer from Iranian retaliation. So, Israel is losing lives while doing the one job which every other country wants them do. This is a very weird paradox.

Israeli strikes on Iran a huge challenge for Trump

The series of airstrikes by Israeli military jets against Iran’s nuclear sites poses a huge challenge for President Trump. The president has made it clear he does not want the United States to be involved in any more wars, at least not ones which other nations should be able to prosecute themselves. He told Tehran that the US was not involved in any way with Israel’s decision to attack the nuclear sites, even though the devastating bombing raids were in the interests of the United States because Trump and his predecessors all said they would never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear bomb. The Israeli strikes will never completely eliminate the nuclear facilities because the most secret plants are about half a mile down beneath concrete and reinforced steel. The damage done by the Israeli raids will put back Iran’s nuclear programme by a significant amount, and that will suit the US and the Trump administration. However, if the intention is to destroy Iran’s whole nuclear project, then at some time it will require the US to be involved militarily, if diplomacy fails, because only the US has the weapons to penetrate that far down into the nuclear bunkers to destroy them. So what will Trump do? Will he join Israel in finally removing the nuclear threat posed by Iran? Or will he push ahead with diplomatic pressure? The answer is that Trump will probably do everything he can to avoid what could be a catastrophic war. The Middle East is in enough turmoil without having a full--scale war between Israel and Iran. And the US is the only country with the power and influence to stop the conflict from breaking out into a more serious conflagration. One can only hope that every ounce of US diplomatic effort is deployed to bring this latest crisis to an end. However, there is no question that it is in the interests of the whole Middle East region that Iran never succeeds in developing nuclear weapons. The prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is so terrifying it is to be hoped that whatever the Israeli airstrikes achieve they will make Tehran and its leaders give up any ambition to go down this dangerous route. This is where the US can and will play a pivotal role, making it clear to Tehran that it will face future military strikes if it continues to develop the capability to build nuclear weapons. However, for the moment, the confrontation between Israel and Iran presents another major challenge for the Trump administration. Even though the president wants to avoid wars, it seems he can’t escape the consequences of conflicts waged by other countries, especially Israel which is one of the most important allies for the US. Whatever happens in the next few weeks, the US will want to protect Israel from retaliation by Iran and that means the US will be a participant in a war that could spread throughout the Middle East.

Are we about to face yet another Middle East war?

There seems to be an appetite for war wherever you look in the Middle East. If it's not enough that Israel is waging war in Gaza, the West Bank, Hezbollah/Lebanon and Syria, there is now every chance that within weeks or even days Israel will launch strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, with or without American help. The truth is that without the huge firepower which the US Air Force possesses, a conventional attack on Iran's deeply-buried nuke plants will make little difference. The most secret and sensitive sites are half a mile underground. Half a mile!! The only bomb which has even a sporting chance of reaching that far through earth and concrete is the US 30,000lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) which would be dropped by a B-2 stealth fighter. But could even that go all the to the very floor of the nuke facility and blow it all up? Israel doesn't have this bomb, so they would be forced to use less powerful bombs which would cause immense damage but not be able to surge through the concrete all that way. The International Atomic Energy Agency has now officially warned that Iran is violating its obligations under the nuke deal signed by Obama in 2015 and has developed hundreds of kilos of 60 per cent enriched uranium, which is way above the level required for peaceful, civilian use. Tehran wants the bomb and it looks like they could get it this year if the Supreme Leader gives his permission. So Israel has told Washington it's going to go ahead and strike. This is the biggest test for Donald Trump since he began his second term. He and Benjamin Netanyahu don't get on, and it could well be that the Israeli leader will give the go ahead for the strike with or without Trump's say-so. That would lead to a nmjor conflict between Israel and Iran. Then what?

Now the US Joint Chiefs chairman says he believes Putin will march on into Europe

It has become the view of the moment among the west's top military commanders to pontificate about what Putin will do next, after Ukraine, and all seem to be saying the same thing, that the Russian leader will march his troops on into Nato Europe and chance his arm in, say, Finland or Latvia or Poland. Of course they could all be right. So why do I remain so sceptical about these gloomy predictions? Principally because taking on Ukraine which Russia has totally failed to subjugate, is a helluva lot different from waging war of any kind with Nato, whether it be in Finland or Poland. Putin absolutely knows this. Any overt invasion of Poland, for example, would lead to a catastrophic counter-attack by Nato. Catastrophic for the Russians, that is. Again, Putin knows this, even if on some days he suspects Nato might not invoke Article 5 of the Nato Treaty. He may be building a war economy and producing more missiles and tanks, but he has lost so many in the war in Ukraine that he is desperate to fill the huge gaps in his arsenal. He won't have the ability to take on Nato in a conflict for years to come, probably never, so why on earth would he risk everything by charging around Europe trying to bite into Nato's alliance? It would be a huge mistake. He must know this. Even Trump is not going to turn his back on Poland or the Baltics and leave it to the Europeans. His legacy would be shot to pieces. Nato would stand firm against any Russian moves made against the alliance. So, all you top generals in the US and Europe, stop trying to scare us into believing that Putin is the next Hitler. Calm down the over-the-top rhetoric and stop showing us you're scared of Putin. It will only make him feel considerably taller than he is.

Trump sends for the Marines

It's the one-liner that all US presidents are tempted to use: send for the Marines. The US Marine Corps is the ultimate symbol of heavyweight fighting power. They have saved the day for America on so many occasions in history. Now, however, Trump is sending hundreds of Marines to Los Angeles to quell the protests that have erupted in the city for days over immigration raids. Sending for the Marines to fight American citizens on the streets of one of America's most famous cities is not what former presidents had in mind when they turned to the Marine Corps for help. It was always to fight overseas. But, having deployed the National Guards to the streets of LA now Trump wants hundreds of Marines to join them. LA citizens must be thinking it's another Hollywood movie in the making. But not under Trump. He has always thought it was constitutionally ok to use the military against protesting Americans. But now he has done it, I suspect there will be many Republicans who will see this as a step far too far. If Marines kill protesters, there will be an outcry. It's a potentially dangerous move for democracy in the US. Let's hope it all calms down and the Marines can return to their barracks.

Will Trump try again with Kim Jong Un?

Donald Trump probably has enough on his hands: the riots in LA where he has sent National Guard troops much to the anger of the California governor; the war in Ukraine which is still raging despite his promise to bring it to a close; the war in Gaza where there is no end to death and destruction; the tariff war with China, Europe and everywhere; his tempestuous break-up with Elon Musk; the continuing friction and argument over his Big, Beautiful Bill, to name just a few issues. So what about North Korea and his old one-time friend Kim Jong Un? Has Trump made any moves to reignite the charm offensive he launched in his first term in office, or is that a dead end issue? If all else is failing, perhaps Trump will turn his attention to Kim Jong Un, if only because the North Korean dictator has cemented his ties with Vladimir Putin and the two are thick as thieves, with North Korean troops having fought alongside Russian soldiers in the Kursk region in western Russia against Ukrainian forces. Not much has been heard of them in recent weeks. We don't know if Trump has tried to rekindle his efforts with Kim Jong Un but if he had he would probably have made it public on his Truth Social platform. But it seems strange that Trump has not even mentioned North Korea. Perhaps when he saw North Korea sink its latest warship by mistake when launching it made Trump think Kim Jong Un doesn't pose a threat at the moment.

Would massive new sanctions against Russia make any difference?

What is going to force Vladimir Putin to change his course with Ukraine? Total defeat is never going to happen, despite all the initial optimism around in the US and Europe when Putin's war faltered in the first few weeks. International sanctions have bitten into Russia's economy but Putin and his empire have survived and thrived. Now Senator Lindsay Graham, the influential supporter of Donald Trump, has come up with a staggeringly brutal new sanctions package which he hopes will finally cripple Russia's economy. He has put forward a bill which would impose a 500 per cent tariff on all countries which still trade with Russia. This is mainly aimed at China and India who have continued throughout the war in Ukraine to buy Russian oil and gas, but also Europe which still, amazingly, buys natural gas from Moscow. If this goes ahead and this extraordinary tariff is deployed, the huge sums Moscow is getting from exporting its oil and gas will be largely cut off. This would have a huge impact on the country's war economy and its ability to continue fighting Ukraine. But it would also cut a swathe through the economies of China, India and Europe. Putin will be calculating that the Trump administration will never go along with it. But it just might be the only option left to bring Putin to his senses. Russia is a country with huge natural resources and relies on other countries to buy its oil and gas to maintain the economy and the war in Ukraine. It will probably be one of those things which Trump will wave around as an option against Moscow but not actually do it.

Can Trump and Musk ever make up?

Right now the arguments and tirades and social media blastings going on between Donald Trump and Elon Musk make it near-impossible for there ever to be a reconciliation. But it all seems so pointless and silly and childish for these two individuals to carry on stamping their feet and vowing enmity etc etc. Children throw their toys out of the pram, adults are supposed to be more reasonable and wise and practical. So this massive battle between the two biggest egos in the United States has to come to an end at some point. Otherwise Musk is going to deploy all his money towards the Democratic party and disaffected Republicans in order to have Trump's big, beautiful bill thrown out. Could he do that? It sounds like he could. So, Musk has the potential to do almost as much damage to Trump as Trump can do to Musk. There's talk of Trump removing all government aid to the Tesla company. But that would undermine the economy, crash the job market and put efforts to go electric in the car business on the back burner. Everyone loses out. It's time the president of the United States and his ex-buddy, the richest man in the world (or was), to call a halt to all this stupidity and get back to being on the same page for the sake of the nation as a whole. But I doubt it will happen.

Goliath versus Goliath

There have been numerous examples in history of David v Goliath, with the smaller one winning against the big brute. But now we have two Goliaths going at each other, Donald Trump v Elon Musk.Two mighty beasts, one with more power than the other and the other with more money than the other. Musk is taller than Trump but he doesn't have a MAGA support base behind him and he hasn't been elected to anything. So, however this mighty clash of egos goes down, Musk will lose and will regret taking on the president. In fact, he could face ruin if he doesn't kiss and make up. So far there is no sign of that happening despite hints from Trump that he might have a call with Musk and sort it out. That all fell through when Trump declared he wasn't interested in talking or thinking about Musk. Musk is pissed off, seeing all his work on slashing budgets and sacking people to save money being washed down the sink with Trump's big, beautiful bill which will add more than $2 trillion dollars to the nation's defecit, undoing all his hard work to chop the federal budget into a meaningful size. Musk has left the White House and Washington and gone to save his company Tesla from collapse. He has already lost as much money as most Third World countries have in their coffers to last the year. It sounds like we need a moderator here to bring the Goliath v Goliath boxing bout to an end before things get totally out of hand.

Will Putin invade the Baltics?

Senior military types across Europe are warning that Putin will turn his attention to the Baltics once he has either crushed Ukraine or forced a surrender by Kyiv. If this is true, and it might be, then we are talking about a potential war between Nato and Russia in the next two to five years. Is this really realistic or are people now getting so jumpy about this crazy world that they have convinced themselves that Putin wants world domination and is hell bent on carving up Nato once and for all.? Again, it's a scenario that can't be dismissed. These military chiefs read the intelligence every day and should know what they're warning about. Or is it really about persuading their governments to spend a helluva lot more on defence, on the basis that deterrence prevents wars and our deterrence and Europe's deterrence is currently unimpressive? All of this foreboding, of course, has been brought on by the man in the White House, Donald Trump, who has not given the sort of assurances about defending Europe to which all his predecessors have been committed. So, a major incursion (not quite an invasion) by Russia against, say, Lithuania, should trigger Article 5 of the Nato Treaty and every member of the alliance then goes to its aid. Putin would be gambling that Nato will do no such thing because Trumpo might say to Europe, "You do it, we're not going to get involved because we have China to worry about." It's a gamble Putin might think worth taking. My view is that Putin has been so humiliated by the way Ukraine has fought back aginst his invasion army that I think he will hesitate to make the mistake of attacking any member of the Nato alliance. This hesitation will be doubled if every member of the alliance starts spending big money on defence, like the five per cent of GDP which Trump is demanding. Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, has claimed today at a Nato defence ministers' meeting that many alliance members are already showing enthusiasm for five per cent, but he didn't include the UK in his list. There is no way Keir Starmer is going to find the money to commit to five per cent of GDP on defence. He's struggling to commit to three per cent and won't get to 2.5 per cent until 2027. Putin will be watching and calculating.

Iran Supreme Leader rejects Trump's nuke proposal

This is not good news for Donald Trump. Very recently he indicated there would be a hig deal with Iran to stop them working on a nuclear weapon as if an announcement was imminent. But it never happened and now Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, has rejected outright the proposal from Trump that Iran gives up enriching uranium. Iran has always said that it has every right, like all countries in the world, to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes and that it will never give up this right. The trouble is Iran is rapidly pushing ahead with enriching uranium towards a weapons-grade level which means the ayatollah's talk of "peaceful purposes" doesn't hold much water. It looks, and has always looked, like Iran actually wants to build a nuclear bomb, whatever the ayatollah says, and he only has to give his say-so and within months they could be enriching uranium to the 90 per cent level required for fissile material for a weapon. So, there's a total impasse yet again, and no sign of a deal which is very bad news. Trump really hasn't yet had any sort of breakthrough foreign policy success. In fact, the opposite. The war in Ukraine is raging on. The war in Gaza is getting worse by the day. More deaths, more destruction. What's Trump going to do if Iran continues to block attempts to reach a diplomatic deal to end the nuke threat. That would be three foreign policy failures.

Britain's strategic defence review is a hollow plan without the right cash

The Labour government's ambitious strategic defence review publishd yesterday was full of bold talk and fancy phrases that when analysed sound like they were written by someone well-versed in the gobbledigook of Whitehallese lingo. For me, the stand-out fiugure was the promise by the government to increase the size of the regular army from its current figure of around 70,000 to 75,000 by 2034. That pretty much sums up the state of our armed forces today. An army of 75,000 in the next nine years is not going to put off people like Vladimir Putin or any foreign leader who fancies his chances to grab a bit of Britain's diminished empire around the globe. Ok, the review is also full of dreamy talk of drones and other unmanned vehicles and super hi-techness and a dozen nuclear-powered submarines. But where is the money going to come from? The hoped-for 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence won't be enough, not for the long term. The aspirational three per cent ain't going to happen for years and as for the Naop secretary general's wish for all alliance members to increase their spending to 3.5 per cent or even five per cent of GDP, how can the UK agree to that when it's struggling to reach 2.5 per cent? Of course, there is only way out and that's to increase income tax by one or two percentage points. But the Labour government "promised" in its manifesto that it wouldn't raise income tax. Ever. This promise will have to be cast aside, and very soon. Then the popularity of the governemnt is going to sink. It's a hard road ahead for this country and for this government. The strategic defence review could end up just being 140 odd pages of unfulfillable wish lists.

Ukraine's attack on Russian bombers is a massive turning-point in the war

Carried outwith precision and daring, Ukraine's security forces have damaged or destroyed dozens of Russia's strategic bombers inside Russia, depending on whether you believe Kyiv's claims or Moscow's downplaying statements. Whatever is the full truth, there is no question that Ukraine has dealt a huge blow to Russia's military and to Putin's confidence. In a covert operation codenamed Spider's Web, 117 drones were launched against Russian strategic bombers in five different bases, allegedly attacking 34 per cent of Moscow's long-range cruise-missile-armed aircraft. Not from a long range but from close up, with the drones fired automatically from trucks nearby. It's a staggering achievement and it will make Putin realise that all his treasured military aircraft parked in the open air on bases without hangers to keep them safe, will now be vulnerable to Ukrainian attack. It's a turning point so massive that I believe Putin will be forced to take drastic action to try and show that he is still winning the war. Could he use tactical nukes against Ukraine? He will be sorely tempted. If he does, then the war will spread to Nato. This is such a dire thought that I hardly dare put it into print. But far from seeking an end to the war, Putin is going to accelerate and expand the conflict. He has built a war economy and is producing so many tanks that he will want to use them. The promise by Sir Keir Starmer today to start converting Britain into war-readiness sounds bold but perhaps too late. Al the things he has promised, such as more nuclear weapons and nuclear-powered submarines, will take years. Putin might make his move well before then.

What does Pete Hegseth mean by "imminent"?

Talking to a bunch of top people in the foreign and security policy business in Singapore, Pete Hegseth, the Trumpite US defence secretary, warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan was "imminent". What does he mean by "imminent"? The definition of imminent is "likely to happen at any moment" and is generally accepted to mean that whatever it is is on the very point of occurring. Like, a person's death is "imminent", ie he has hours to live. So is that what Hegseth meant? That China is literally poised to invade Taiwan, like tomorrow or the next day at the latest? Surely not. I don't think so. If it was true, there would be signs of a massive build-up of PLA warships, amphibious craft, fighter jets, ballistic missiles all turned in the direction of Taiwan and so on. But there is no sign or any intelligence of this going on. Nor do I think Beijing is actually ready for an invasion of Taiwan. Politically, Xi Zinping might just risk it in the belief that Trump won't bother to retaliate by defending Taiwan, but, militarily, the PLA needs more time for rehearsals. They've got until 2027 when Xi said Taiwan will be back under the Beijing fold whether by diplomacy or force. So, not imminent then, not tomorrow or next week or even next month. Hegseth was stirring it up, I guess, and he certainly did that with Beijing which warned him to stop interfering.

Joe Biden has no regrets

Poor old Joe, as Donald Trump calls him, he does seem to be a bit in cloud cuckoo land at the moment. In an interview, Biden says he has no regrets about standing for reelection and then dropping out with only three months left of the presidential campaign. Je ne regrette rien. Well, I can tell you who does have regrets, Kamala Harris and the whole Democratic party. Biden is convinced that it wouldn't have made any difference even if he had dropped out much earlier or not stood for reelection at all which doesn't say much for his opinion of Kamala Harris whom, after all, he chose to be his running mate. Does that mean Biden thinks Trump was on an unbeatable path to the White House. If so, why did he say repeatedly that he was the only one in the Democratic party who could beat Trump - for the second time. To say he has no regrets is a bit of slap in the face for the Democrats who now have four years of being shoved into the background and with probably little hope of winning the 2028 election. At some point, Biden will regret that if nothing else.

How has Hamas survived this long?

Since the October 7, 2023 atrocity when Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and captured 250, the terror organisation has suffered a huge death toll at the hands of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) - perhaps 17,000 kiled - and have lost nearly all of their top commanders. And yet, somehow, Hamas still survives both as a fighting force and as rulers of Gaza. How is this possible when Israel has the military power to annihilate them? It's yet another golden rule learnt by the superior of two military forces, that might and firepower don't necessarily bring victory. The Taleban survived against the huge superiority of the US-led coalition forces over 20 years because it was their territory, they knew where to be, where to hide, and how to fight a superior force. The same has been the case with Hamas versus Israel. Hamas still have their underground tunnels and bunkers, they have the remaining Palestinian population to hide amongst and when their commanders have been killed - the latest one killed this week - they bring on new ones. Benjamin Netanyahu wants to destroy Hamas once and for all. I don't think the IDF are ever going to be able to achieve his objective.

Putin's summer offensive in Ukraine has begun

While Donald Trump seeths with frustration over Putin's failure to agree a ceasefire in Ukraine, and Europe ponders whether it will be on its own supporting Kyiv, the Russian leader is just getting on with the task of mounting a new offensive. About 50,000 Russian troops are gathered on the northern border of Ukraine and seem poised to try and seize control of the whole of the Donetsk province in eastern Ukraine. They may not succeed because the Ukrainian forces are wise to what he is up to and will no doubt do their best to target the incoming troops. But what the summer offensive tells us more than anything is that Putin is not remotely interested in a ceasefire or reaching a peace settlement and that at least for the next few months he will order his troops to grab as much territory as possible. The general view is that this is his way of gaining leverage if and when settlement talks begin. But I don't think this is the case any more. I think Putin has decided that he no longer has to fear what Trump will do, if he ever did, and that he's prepared to screw over Trump and pursue his war aims whatever the US president does or says. Trump has claimed he doesn't understand what the crazy Putin is doing, especially after their nice two-hour chat on the phone which gave Trump some hope that his personal relationship with the Moscow leader would be critical in ending the war. But while Putin is obviously prepared to play along with Trump, he is not really listening. The gathering of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian northern border shows he is getting a second wind. He is ready for a long war.

Nobody knows what to do with Ukraine

Attempts to end the war in Ukraine have failed beyond hope. So now what? Nobody really knows what to do and how to bring this appalling conflict to a close. Donald Trump was the most confident that he could do it but his efforts have come to nothing. Europe has stuck with Kyiv and have kept sending arms and making promises, but, basically, the UK and the whole of Europe desperately want it all to end so that they can spend money on other things, like defence and welfare and health and education and poor roads. The one person who knows all of this and is exploiting it is, of course, Vladimir Putin. He is just winning, winning, winning. Europe now apparently has authorised Zelensky to use his donated long-range missiles to hit inside Russia. So, in the next few weeks, watch out for a huge increase in attacks from Ukraine into Russia, possibly into Moscow itself. This will exacerbate and make more dangerous the war between these two countries. It might make Europe feel good and it will certainly make Zelensky happy, but will it help to bring the war to a negotiated end? I fear not. It will just make Putin angrier and more determined to crush Ukraine. And so the war will go and on. Nobody, either in the US or Europe knows what steps to take next because all efforts to forge a ceasefire, let alone to sign a peace settlement, have fallen on deaf ears in Moscow. Putin is happy to carry on and watch the US and Europe throw up their hands in dismay and frustration.

King Charles and his tricky address to Canada's parliament

With anyone else in the White House, King Charles's state visit to Canada would have been a routine affair with plenty of pomp and processions and an obliging speech for the state opening of parliament. But with Donald Trump as US president, the same man who said he wanted Canada to become America's 51st state, it presents a huge problem for the monarch. Charles has asked Trump to come to the UK for a state visit in September, so he can't go too far in saying he wants Canada to remain part of the Commonwealth, an indepdent sovereign country which just happens to share a long border with the US. Charles can't criticise Trump's crazy notion of absorbing Canada into the United States, but on the other hand if he ignores the threat totally he will disappoint every Canadian both in and out of parliament. Charles and his speech writers are pretty clever at avoiding controversy but his address to parliament can't be anodyne. It has to underline Canada's importance as a sovereign nation without mentioning or even hinting at Trump. But yet getting the message across: keep out, Trump! Whatever he says, Trump will be reading between the lines, so good luck, Your Majesty, with coming up with the right formula to ensure everyone is happy.

The Kremlin accuses Trump of being over-emotional

The Kremlin (Putin) thinks Donald Trump is getting overwhelmed with emotion about all the recent deaths in Ukraine. Clearly the Kremlin (Putin) is not worried about all the deaths the Russian drones and missiles have been causing in recent days, men, women and children cut down by these flying bombs. But Trump is fed up with Putin for failing to do what he wants which is to negotiate a long ceasefire and stop the killing. He called Putin "absolutely crazy" for carrying on killing people when he promised on the phone last week to start immediate negotiations with Ukraine to forge a 30-day ceasefire. Have those negotiations begun? No, they haven't. So that hugely promoted phone chat between Putin and Trump was just blather. Blaa blaa blaa. Trump is getting increasingly angry that Putin is not playing ball. But, seriously, did Trump really think that Putin would cave in and bring the war to an end just because the US president was getting all emotional about the continuing deaths. The statement from the Kremlin today was perfect evidence that Putin plans to go on sending drones and missiles to cause maximum death and destruction for as long as he wants. He will decide when to stop, if ever, and doesn't care less about Trump's intervention. Instead, he approves the condescending statement from the Kremlin about Trump getting all emotional. It is not a good sign!

Has Zelensky run out of hope for his country?

For more than three years, the former comedian turned president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has fought the Russian invaders and tried to win the support of the the West to back him. His achievements have been phenominal. Ukraine still survives despite a massive onslaught of violence from Russia and he succeeded in corralling the United States and Europe into supplying him with the weapons he needed to defend his country against the invasion force. He is now one of the most famous and recognisable figures on the planet. But is it all now going to go wrong? The US under President Trump wants to stop spending more money on Ukraine and Trump himself has effectively said he will walk away if he can't get Moscow and Kyiv to sign a peace settlement. Europe is still backing him all the way but the Europeans are no substitute for the US. Meanwhile, the missiles and drones keep raining on Kyiv and other towns and cities. Has Zelensky finally run out of hope for the survivability of his country or is he resigned to non-stop war for the next decade? Either way, this is a bad moment for him and for the Ukrainian people. All the effort Zelensky put in to build an alliance with the West to save his country could now be wasted. Putin looks more confident by the day and holds all the cards. He is clearly not afraid of Trump and is just as happy to play him as he is to play Zelensky. Putin is also not remotely afraid of Europe which he sees as divided and run by hopeless governments. Putin sees himself as the new emperor. Zelensky is a brave and resourceful leader. But I fear it's all going to end in humiliation for him.

Drone war goes on and on in Ukraine and Russia

The war between Ukraine and Russia is almnost exclusively now fought out by drones and missiles. You never hear about tank attacks or artillery strikes, let alone infantry combat. It's drones, drones, drones and they are getting more and more deadly and with longer ranges. To such an extent that the Ukraine military are now confident about launching drones which will reach the outskirts of Moscow. Both Russia and Ukraine are producing drones on a massive scale, so there is never a shortage. This sort of war can go on for ever, and right now, with Vladimir Putin dismissing any attempts to agree a ceasefire, let alone end the war, he will just carry on launching the drones every day and night. Likewise, Ukraine has factories and research facilities to produce better and better drones. Even as Moscow and Kyiv were engaged in a transfer of hundreds of prisoners of war, both sides were launching drones against each other. We never hear anymore about American Abrams tanks, or German Leopard tanks or British Challenger 2s. The only thing that counts are drones, as well as missiles, It's a frightening, ever-present type of warfare and because both Russia and Ukraine are building more and more, it means neither side is going to win. It will just be relentless. I don't see it ending for years.

Is Trump's big bill beautiful or ugly?

Making a judgment about Donald Trump's "big beautiful bill" is almost impossible because it is so complex. It's more than 1,000 pages long with detailed clauses on every page and financial imlications that are difficult to guage with any degree of certainty. It's claimed the bill which covers a multiple range of political issues will increase the national deficit by another $3.8 trillion. The figure is so staggering you wonder whether that's accurate. If it is accurate then the US deficit, currently around $2 trillion will be nearly $6 trillion. You don't have to be a financial expert to work out that a deficit of such huge proportions cannot be good for a flourishing economy. The interest on the national debt is so enormous that it has been claimed last year it exceeded the total amount spent on defence in the US - $997 billion. How can a country be financially stable if it pays interest on borowing at that rate? No wonder there are a lot of Republicans in the Senate who will be looking at this situation when they come to examine and "approve" the bill. These days most countries talk about the need to have fiscal responsibility which means trying to balance the books without borrowing huge sums. The US under the Trump administration doesn't seem that worried about the piling-up debt. But at some point the mathmaticians in the administration will realise the massive debt is no longer sustainable.