Thursday 8 August 2024

Putin's shock at Ukrainian "invasion" is perfect schadenfreude

To see Vladimir Putin outraged over the incursion into Ruussia of about 1,000 Ukrainian troops with tanks and armoured vehicles is more than ironic. It's pure schadenfreude. Perhaps he had forgotten that in February 2022 he ordered the invasion of Ukraine with tens of thousands of troops, armoured convoys, missiles and rockets and all the paraphernalia of military aggression. Now, two and a half years later, Ukraine has decided to give Russia a bit of its own medicine. Potentially, it's a high-risk move by Kyiv which won't be officially supported by the US-led coalition which has always been anxious, under Joe Biden's leadership, to avoid anything that might lead to escalation. But that argument has gone by the board now that the West has supplied Ukraine with the sort of equipment that could be used for striking deep into Russian territory. This is the way the war is going now. There will be more and more attacks on Russian territory in the hope that Putin will start to think about calling for an end to the war - on his terms of course. The key thing is this: will Ukrainian offensive action across the border into Russia make a difference with the Russian people? Will they begin to think that Putin's adventure has now failed and Russia is at risk? The trouble is, Russia is a massive country and most Russians live nowhere near the border with Ukraine and can get on with their lives, believing everything that's told them by the Kremlin. So a few incursions into Russia won't persuade them to oppose the war. Very few people dare to oppose Putin's war, anmyway. But in Putin's mind, these incursions just might make him wonder whether he can carry on the war for ever. He can suppress any internal opposition but what if Ukrainian troops achieve some significant victory inside Russia? His response would normally be to hit back and hit back hard. But there is no question, this latest development is a mighty blow to his prestige and authority.

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