Saturday 18 May 2024

Russia on war footing. For what exactly?

Is Russia retooling and expanding its war production lines because of Ukraine or is it for another even more sinister purpose? At the start of his fifth presidential term, is Vladimir Putin planning other much grander schemes, such as future invasions of Moldova, Georgia, maybe the Baltic nations of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania? And if he is plotting this in his head, does he seriousy think he can get away with it without incurring a conventional/nuclear war wiith Nato? My belief is that Putin has learnt a lot from the war in Ukraine and the West's response to it. Initially it was all bad news for him: Ukraine fought back and ruined his game plan which was to conquer the whole country in weeks or even days, and then Joe Bien corralled the whole of the western alliance and other partners around the world to send arms and money to Kyiv to help defend Ukraine from the Russian aggression. But now more than two years later, the picture is very different. US Congress wavered over sending more arms, Ukraine began to run out of ammunition, Russian troops advanced and Russian missiles tore into Ukraine's energy installations, and the Russian economy not only survived the mass international sanctions but adapted and flourished, thanks to countries such as India which continued to buy Russian oil. So Putin can look to the future with a degree of confidence and he might start planning other adventures, hoping/believing that the great Nato machine might actually step back from a full-scale war because of the potential catastrophic implication for the whole planet. And it's for this reason perhaps why President Macron, having thought it all through, suggested that there might come a time when Nato should send troops to Ukraine. In other words, call Putin's bluff. The idea among some European members of Nato to send military trainers would be a first step, to test the wind as it were. Dangerous and risky, yes, but Putin is getting away with too much. But as in the US war in Vietnam, military trainers were inevitaby followed by combat troops, and more combat troops, hundreds of thousands of them. That's what would happen in Ukraine. Is Nato prepared to take such a gamble, and how would Putin react? It just might bring to a halt any dreams he has of invading other countries.

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