Wednesday 15 May 2024

Nikki Haley is now a power broker

One of the most fascinating ingredients in the US presidential election campaigning is the continuing loyalty being shown to Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, even though she is no longer running as a Republican candidate. She is picking up more than 22 per cent of the vote in primaries. The question is, what is she going to do with this power base? She hasn't declared for Donald Trump and if she did I think that could lead to mixed fortunes. First of all, she is getting all these votes because her supporters don't want Trump to be the next president. So if she announced that she was endorsing Trump, she would not only annoy those who have stuck loyally with her but it would also confuse millions of voters who won't know where to transfer their support. Some of them might vote for Joe Biden, so good news for him, others might look around for someone else in the Republican party or an independent. But, of course, there isn't anyone else in the Republican party because Trump has already effectively won the nomination. Could Haley abandon Trump and the Republicans and call on her supporters to vote for Biden? Well, she could but it would seem unlikely. She is a true-blood Republican and she would screw up her future presidential hopes. No one would back her for a future nomination if she had been responsible for giving Biden another four years in the White House. But, on the other hand, if she declares for neither Trump nor Biden, and all her supporters stick with her in the ballot box, she might still be responsible for helping Biden win. It's an intruigingly powerful position to be in. In the end, she might just declare for Trump in the hope and expectation of getting a top job in his administration. Because, if she stays silent and gives no advice to her loyal supporters, Trump will offer her nothing. She has less han six months to make up her mind.

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