A few more thoughts on Taiwan versus China

Without rapid and overwhelming military support from the United States, Taiwan would survive a large-scale invasion by China’s People’s Liberation Army for a matter of days. Taiwan is blessed with natural defences – high coastal cliffs and rough water in the Strait separating the island from mainland China. On top of that, the Taiwanese military has advanced weaponry, long-range missiles, thousands of mines located offshore and a well-rehearsed defence plan honed over many years. The PLA has superiority in every aspect of warfare: a dominating offensive cyber capability and more than 1,250 intermediate, medium and short-range ballistic missiles and ground-launched cruise missiles. In the eastern and southern theatres alone, across from Taiwan, the PLA has 412,000 ground troops including six amphibious brigades, 600 fighter aircraft, 250 bombers, 23 destroyers and 35 tank-landing ships. In the invasion scenario envisioned by the Pentagon, China would initially swamp Taiwan with cyber attacks to knock out key infrastructure including command and control networks before sending in amphibious forces and airborne brigades to form bridgeheads from which to launch assaults on Taiwanese military positions, backed by fighter jets, bombers and electronic-jamming aircraft. Depending on how much time the US had to prepare - potentially it could take months for the PLA to gets its invasion force ready - the Pentagon could have two aircraft carrier strike groups in position in the South China Sea as a deterrent to Beijing, as well as an amphibious ready group with 5,000 Marines and a display of B-52H bombers and stealth fighters at the Andersen base on Guam, 1,700 miles from Taiwan. It would be brinkmanship at the most dangerous level. If the US were to back away from its implied pledge to support Taiwan militarily in the event of an invasion by China, the self-governing island would fall after the second or third wave of PLA attacks. If Washington made it clear that at the first sign of an invasion the US would be ready to take on China, would Beijing fire the first shot – perhaps a preemptive strike on Guam? If so, war between China and the US would be unavoidable.