Tuesday 9 June 2020

Trump is probaby secretly relieved he didn't bring those troops into Washington DC

All the active-duty soldiers - 1,600 of them - who were on high alert for Washington DC riots have gone back to their home garrisons, having neither stepped foot on the capital's streets nor fired a shot. After the uproar over the prospect of having combat infantry troops patrolling Washington and the personal battle between the White House and the Pentagon over the appalling PR generated by the whole constitutional issue, I suspect that Trump is secretly relieved that, after all, he didn't have to bring in the troops. Politico has very cleverly dug up a bit of history. The last time apparently a US president summoned troops into the capital was in 1932 when President Herbert Hoover called on the Pentagon to stamp out the protests by a bunch of World War 1 veterans who had camped out in Washington to demand service bonuses. Bayonet-waving troops were photographed assaulting the camps and burning them to the ground. Hoover was not reelected as a result. Trump is five months away from knowing whether he will be granted a second term in office, and if he hasn't read the article in Politico today, some wise aide will no doubt have mentioned the Hoover experience, just in case the president gets itchy once again about suppressing protests in the capital. Can you imagine the images that would have gone viral if soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division's immediate rapid response had started battling with the George Floyd protesters? It was bad enough having the National Guard and that mysterious assortment of heavily-gunned "agency" para-military types protecting the president and the White House and clearing streets. Those images will no doubt be brought up again as election day approaches. Somehow you can't imagine a President Joe Biden contemplating bringing in troops to drive out protesters in Washington. Trump will see that as a sign of weakness of course, but I can't see how the death of George Floyd and the mass demonstrations that followed are going to be a boost for Trump's political standing. Biden could exploit the Floyd tragedy to his advantage but I somehow doubt he will for fear of being accused of flagrant political exploitation. So will the Hoover precedent be a decisive factor in whether Trump is releected or not? As I have written many times before, the only things that will really count in November will be the state of the US economy and jobs, with Trump the man as another key ingredient (love him or loathe him). All other issues will move to the periphery.

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