Sunday 14 June 2020

After nearly four years Trump hasn't started a new war

Bob Gates is back in the news to promote his latest book. The former US Defence Secretary HAS been busy since his retirement in July 2011. As part of his promotional tour he has inevitably appeared on TV and when asked about his view of Donald Trump, he came up with this: Unlike his predecessors, at least he hasn't started a new war. I guess that's true and it could be a talking point for the presidential election. Trump blasts out to his supporters: "You vote for me and you get peace. No wars." Well, in his near four years, Trump HAS threatened wars, notably against North Korea and Iran. He pretty well said the US could obliterate both countries. But it was all rhetoric. And in the meantime he has done his best to get all troops out of Syria and Afghanistan and has his eye on removing them from Iraq too. At West Point military academy a few days ago he told the army graduates that the US was no longer the world's policeman. Trump has aways had this contradiction. He wants to be seen as the toughest president in history but he doesn't want the world's greatest military power to be involved in fighting wars thousands of miles away. Not any more. George W Bush of course launched the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the region is still suffering as a consequence. Obama sent 30,000 more US troops to Afghanistan for a war that could never be won, and launched airstrikes on Isis in Syria and Iraq, although he held back from carrying out the war he had promised, to bomb the Syrian regime if they used chemical weaons against the Syrian people. Bashar Assad DID use chemical weapons but Obama didn't bomb. Bill Clinton sent Tomahawaks flying all over the place. But, as Gates pointed out, Trump is a no-war president so far. Who knows, if he is reelected, whether he will keep that record. By May next year, all US troops should be out of Afghanistan but probably won't be because the Taliban can't be trusted to hold to their side of the peace deal, and no doubt the 500 or so US troops still in Syria will be pulled out at some point next year - if Trump wins. He certainly doesn't want a war with North Korea or Iran, although there are bound to be some brinkmanship moments with both Pyongyang and Tehran next year. And China? Well the US wouldn't win a naval war with China if it were to take place in the Asia-Pacific over Taiwan or the islands in the South China Sea, and a war with Russia, say in Ukraine, is out of the question. So, unless some unexpected crisis occurs out of the blue in some unlikely spot that requires a US invasion - such as Venezuela!! - a reelected Trump could struggle thruogh the next four years without a war. That would actually be quite an achievement.

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