Wednesday 27 February 2019
Kim Jong-un prefers his nukes to a flourishing economy
Donald Trump believes he has found the perfect answer to Kim Jong-un's intransigence: give up your nukes and the US will help you build the fastest upward-moving economy since, well, since South Korea and Vietnam. Perhaps he has in mind a huge Trump resort on the coast and half a dozen Trump golf courses. But surely there is a fatal flaw to this solution. Do Kim and his family really want to improve the lives of their citizens or do they want above all else to stay in power and benefit from the luxuries that come their way through illegal deals with countries who don't care about international sanctions? North Korea old hands will have tried to get the message across to the White House that promising a glowing economy isn't going to cut it with Kim. Has he ever shown sympathy for the rural workers who barely eek out an existence on poverty income? Does he want North Korea to be another South Korea or Vietnam? It's a nice try but Kim comes from a ruthless dynastic dictatorship with an appalling human rights record. He wants total power and he must worry that if he agrees to Trump's plan and turns North Korea into an economic miracle, in return for surrendering his nukes, what leverage will he have over his potential enemies at home and overseas? He needs his nukes and long-range ballistic missiles. When Trump has gone will his successor be as nice to him? I fear these sorts of questions are running around in Kim's head and he won't move towards denuclearisation unless the US agrees to withdraw all 28,500 troops from South Korea. He knows China will be on his side because it's very much in Beijing's interest for the US military to disappear from the region. I want this summit in Hanoi to be a success, I would love to hear Kim say he will dismantle all of his nukes and missiles and open up his country to outside investment. But every time I see Kim smiling or waving from a train window, I feel he is exactly the same person he was when he was test-firing nuclear-capable missiles in 2017. Is he excited by the prospect of having Walmart supermarkets estalishing themselves across North Korea and Starbucks on every street corner in Pyongyang? No he is not. Because if his people get too used to prosperity and enjoying life they might turn against him and his military henchmen. So Kim will keep his nukes as his permanent insurance policy.
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