Thursday 14 June 2018

Is Trump on a roll to a second term?

The summit with Kim Jong-un will not guarantee Donald Trump winning a second term in the White House. But the Trump on display in Singapore and afterwards, and the way the Republican Party is heading right now probably WILL see him through to another four years. Trump is dominating the airwaves and his daily tweets are now very much part of the political landscape. In other words, you can't escape Trump and Trumpism and with that sort of Big Personality momentum, it's hard to see how a Democratic candidate, let alone a rival Republican, could get a look in. It's Trump until 2024!! For Trump supporters, and there are lots of them, that's no doubt terrific news but for anyone in the US, and there are lots of them too, who cannot stand the man and hate everything he is doing to America, the world, US allies etc etc, this is a very bleak prospect indeed. The Republican Party has turned into the Trump Party. New candidates for Congress are all Trump speak-alikes. So Congress itself is going to change radically, with the new breed of Republican senators and congressmen pushing for Trump's policies whatever they are. With the prospect of Trump being around until 2024, other world leaders are going to have to take this on board. The Brits will be leaving the EU by the end of March next year and if Theresa May is still in power she will have to do her damndest to get to like Trump to persuade him to sign up for a lot of fancy trade deals. Angela Merkel, if she survives as Chancellor, will also have to swallow her obvious distaste for Trump and try to get to understand him. But Trump won't care. He'll stick with the leaders who might join his fan club, perhaps the new Italian prime minister, probably the leaders in Poland and Hungary, the Israeli prime minister obviously who dotes on him, and then the two leaders who Trump wants to be cosy with, President Xi Zinping of China and President Vladimir Putin. Oh and the Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. There's a friendship that is going to blossom whether the North Korean dictator does everything he's supposed to do or not. Much will ride on Trump's North Korean spectacular, but even if it fails to provide a totally non-nuclear North Korea, Trump will make sure it is viewed as one of the greatest foreign policy success stories in history. So, rest of the world, get used to the idea: Trump is here to stay. Forget Robert Mueller. Russia/Trump collusion is going nowhere.

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