Thursday 21 September 2017

Trump's sunset strip

Oh my goodness I agree with Trump. The Iran nuclear deal's "sunset clause" under which the limits on uranium-enrichment are lifted in 2025 is unbelievably irresponsible and asking for trouble. How could Obama's negotiating team which included the incredibly bright, but unfashionably shaggy-haired energy secretary, Ernest Moniz, have effectively agreed to let Iran restart its full-scale uranium-enrichment programme - vital for building a nuclear weapon - ten years after signing the deal which restricted Tehran's ability to develop a nuclear bomb and/or a nuclear warhead for its ambitious ballistic missile programme. It was only a ten-year deal! When I read that after the deal was signed in Geneva in 2015 I thought that was the most foolish small print I had ever read. Why not make the deal last for 20 years or preferably 100 years? I know what Obama was thinking. Hopefully, he surmised, things would change so much in Iran in ten years that any thought of reverting to building a nuclear bomb would be anathema to the vibrant, western-loving Iranian people. The ayatollahs would be replaced by millionaire businessmen and the Iranian Republican Guard who are responsible for all things military, including nuclear, would be turned into boy scouts. Well, dream on Obama. That was never going to happen. In ten years, the same Mafioso will be running Iran, and by 2025 they will have devised a cunning plan to take up where they left off in 2015. So, a nuclear-armed Iran by 2028. Trump obviously thinks along the same lines and has made clear his rejection of the sunset clause. He is right! If the Iranian government wants all sanctions to be lifted, then the sunset clause needs to be extended by several decades. Whether Trump will ever be able to persuade the other signatories to the deal - China, Russia, UK, France and Germany - we shall have to wait and see.

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