Tuesday 12 September 2017

Kim gets away with it

Thanks to China and Russia, Kim Jong-un is laughing his head off. So there are new tough sanctions but they bear no resemblance to what Trump had in mind for the "crazy fat kid", to use the immortal description by Senator John McCain. Had Trump and delightful-looking UN ambassador Nikki Haley got their way, all oil and gas exports to North Korea would have been banned, and Kim's personal assets around the world would have been frozen. That would have theoretically destroyed North Korea's economy and brought Kim to his knees. I say theoretically because, as Putin knew when he got his ambassador to the UN to water down the sanctions, there are plenty of Russian businessmen prepared to sell North Korea what it wants, never mind the sanctions. So, in Putin's mind, what was the point of angering Kim so much with the toughest of all sanctions and give him an excuse to retaliate with a new ballistic missile test or nuclear test? Soften the blow and hope Kim doesn't go mad! It's crazy politics but in a Kremlinesque sort of way, the watered down version, supported by everyone in the UN, might make Kim think. I could be over optimistic but might Kim say to himself: "Ok, more sanctions but my friends in Moscow and Beijing have played a blinder and stopped that dreadful man Trump from trying to destroy my country. Soooo, I better be a good boy for a bit to show my appreciation. If I piss off Putin and Xi Zinping and go ahead with another ICBM launch, the next round of sanctions could really be tough." I don't know whether Kim thinks logically but if there are any advisers who have the balls to actually advise him, they should whisper into his ear that now is not the time to do another nuclear test or launch another missile. But there probably isn't anyone in his inner or outer circle who has such balls and Kim will be so angry at Trump for his sanctions wish list that he might ignore common sense and go for a big one - a Guam-directed missile launch. But, Kim, my advice is bite your tongue, take a breather and send a post card to Moscow and Beijing saying thanks for their support.

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