Zelensky confident the war will come to an end next year

I don't know wnat Donald Trump told Zelensky over the phone after he had won the election. But it seems to have given the Ukrainian leader the confidence to say that under Trump the war with Russia will end sooner. He must mean by that that he has come round to the view that a negotiated end to the war is the only way forward and that he may have to make some significant concessions to Moscow. But if Moscow is allowed to keep every square foot of Ukrainian territory it has seized what on earth was this defence against Russia about? What was the US-led coalition for Kyiv all abou if Moscow is to get what it wanted? OK, Putin really wanted to crush the whole of Ukraine and set up a puppet leader in Kyiv and he failed in that endeavour. But basically, he failed BEFORE the US-led coaliton started pouring weapons into the country. Putin's abject failure to seize Kyiv at the beginning meant it was always going to be a slow, slow war with mass casualties. And that is exactly what has happened in the last near-three years. So will Zelensky now welcome Trump's intervention and go for whatever Moscow agrees to? It looks like it. Then what will the hundreds of thousands of family members of those Ukrainians killed and injured in the war say to their leader. Was this mighty sacrifice worth it? What have we gained? And might it happen all over again?

Will the Senate confirm Matt Gaetz or Robert F Kennedy?

Of all the cabinet selections announced by Donald Trump, president-elect, that of Matt Gaetz as attorney general and Robert F Kennedy as health secretary are the most controversial and most quixotic. They could both have a really tough time when their confirmation hearings take place in the Senate, even though the Republicans have the majority. Gaetz who was a congressman representing Florida before he resigned this week following Trump's nomination for the attorney general job, was under investigation by the House of Representatives for sexual misconduct, illicit drug use and misuse of campaign funds. But as House ethics investigations can only deal with members, it has effectively come to an end. A very neat coincidence. Kevin McCarthy, the former Republican Speaker of the House, has predicted the Senate won’t confirm Gaetz. It was Gaetz who led the successful move to oust McCarthy as Speaker in October last year. However, Trump chose the controversial figure because he wanted an attorney general who would overhaul the justice department and root out what he believed to be corruption in the justice system. The president-elect will not take kindly to any attempt by Republican members of the Senate who join Democrats to oppose the Gaetz appointment. Likewise, there could be trouble for Trump with his nomination of Robert Kennedy, an avowed opponent of Covid vaccinations. But, as with Gaetz at the justice department, Trump expects Kennedy to bring big changes at the health department. The Senate hearings for both these gentlemen are going to be fiery.

The Trump-Biden show

One of the more bizarre events of the week was Donald Trump and Joe Biden sitting together in the White House and being nice to each other. It's called tradition and protocol but these two guys have, until now, been going hammer and tongs at each other. Biden said Trump was not worthy of becoming president and Trump said old Joe was a walking disaster, unable to match his mental faculties with the rest of his body. All good stuff in the nasty political world that Trump alluded to while reporters and photographers were allowed in the room before the two men got down to a serious chat. But what did they chat about? How to solve the wars in the Middle East? How to help Ukraine beat Russia? How to keep China in check? What the hell to do about Kim Jong-un? How to stifle the ayatollahs in Iran? I suspect that whatever thoughts Biden may have had, Trump didn't bother to listen. He has his own ideas and doesn't think Biden achieved much, if anything, during his four years. Certainly, the quotes the reporters got from the brief seconds they were in the room were pretty banal. Trump was cordial and Biden said all the stuff he was supposed to say according to the script he was given. Like how he promised a smooth transition etc. Trump who didn't want anything smooth when he lost to Biden in 2020, bit his tongue and said how grateful he was. It was all wonderful Alice in Wonderland stuff. Just wait for Trump's inauguration speech when he tears into the Biden administration and declares MAGA for ever.

Trump's extraordinary choice for Defence Secretary

Well, the polls were all wrong about Kamala Harris winning the election. Now all the experts predicting who might become Donald Trump's defence secretary have also been proved hopelessly wrong. Instead of going for a so-called defence heavyweight or at least someone with a huge management experience, Trump has picked out a handsome Fox News host and presenter who certainly looks the part - a younger version of that other glamour boy defence secretary, the late Donald Rumsfeld - but has no knowledge of or experience in masterminding any sort of business, let alone one of the largest organisations in the universe. Pete Hegseth did his stuff for America as a soldier, serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, so he knows about military matters but he ain't no general. It's going to be a huge learning curve for him and perhaps an even bigger learning curve for the huge manpower machine, otherwise known as the Pentagon. Good luck to him and good luck to everyone who works in the second largest office building in the world.

Trump picks loyalists to be in his administration

Only those super-loyal to President-elect Donald Trump are getting jobs in his cabinet. There will be no place for irritating generals who think they know better about national security issues. Not this time around. Trump regretted his choice of generals the last time, so he won't be making that mistake again. Now it's people he knows he can trust to do what he wants them to do. Marco Rubio is actually not a bad choice for secretary of state. He has long experience in international affairs and intelligence issues. After a brief spasm of disloyalty to Trump when he was standing for president himself he has come round to being a devoted follower, and Trump shouldn't have any trouble with him,. Likewise, his nomination of Representative Mike Waltz as his national security adviser, goes along the same lines. Total loyalty to Trumpism, fully signed up to Trump's foreign policy style. Trump's selection of defence secretary isn't clear yet but I'd bet a thousand dollars it won't be a retired four-star general.

Russian death toll in Ukraine could be Zelensky's strongest leverage

It is always claimed that Vladimir Putin cares not a fig for the deaths and injuries among his troops in Ukraine provided he gets the land he wants and provided he causes maximum economic angst for the US and Europe. That has generally seemed to be the case because as the death toll rose, he just mobilised more troops or sent in barely-trained recruits to fill the gaps. But Britain's top military chief has now claimed that Russia is close to suffering 700,000 casualties - dead and wounded - and that last month, on average, 1,500 Russian soldiers were killed or injured every single day. That is a staggering statistic. And what's more, in return, the Russian occupying troops managed only the most limited of geographical gains on the battlefield. Will there come a point when Putin realises this level of casualties cannot continue for much longer? And will that then be the moment when Zelensky can use the casualty leverage to put pressure on Putin to stop the fighting and reach a deal which is reasonably favourable to Kyiv? The answer is that it will only force Putin to offer concessions if there is a domestic outcry about the rising deaths. So far, there has been no sign of it because Putin has cleverly told the Russian people that the invasion of Ukraine was all about protecting Russia from its enemies in the West and that it has to be a fight to the death to preserve Russia's own sovereignty. The Russian people may believe this right now but with all the talk of a possible deal when Donald Trump comes to power, will that belief in Putin remain as strong as ever? I suspect that that moment won't be reached until it is reported or claimed that Russia has lost one million men. At the current rate of 1,500 a day dead and wounded, that figure could be reached by the middle of next year.

Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley are out

Underlining how he intends to appoint only super-loyal individuals to his cabinet, Donald Trump has announced that he is not going to give a job to either Mike Pompeo, his former secretary of state and CIA director, or Nikki Haley who was ambassador to the United Nations in the first Trump administration. Pompeo wanted to be defence secretary and Haley would probably have been eager to serve in the Trump cabinet. But Trump doesn't trust them. Haley, of course, campaigned against him to be the Republican nominee and lasted longer than any of his other rivals. She has also, in the past, been critical of Trump's perceived involvement in the attempt to prevent Joe Biden from taking over as president in January 2021. She took a long time to endorse Trump for the nomination. Pompeo, likewise, although he decided not to stand against Trump, didn't exactly rush to endorse his former boss. That would have been seen as disloyal by Trump who has neatly taken his revenge by declaring in a message on his social media platform that he doesn't want them in his cabinet. Ouch! But the message is clear. He wants not just loyalty but subservience. So, this time, there will be no hawking around for a decent retired general to take over the Pentagon. He will want a devoted, adoring man or possibly woman at the Defence Department who will take his orders and get the military to do as they are told. I thought it would be the very right wing Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton but he has already said he doesn't want the job. So there! Keep looking, Trump.